Gold and Silver as Safe Haven? Volatility is Back

Investors often turn to gold and silver in times of macroeconomic uncertainty. Market participants often view these precious metals as traditional “safe haven” assets that preserve value when equities falter or inflation worries spike. In early 2026, this narrative took center stage. Both metals surged to multi-year highs amid geopolitical tensions, a soft U.S. dollar, and rising inflation expectations. However, the last week of January 2026 brought a stark reminder that even safe havens can experience intense volatility. In this post, we view this risk through the lens of liquid instruments in exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

📊 Glimpse at GLD & SLV Performance

GLD and SLV are two ETFs that track the spot price performance of gold and silver. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is the largest gold ETF. It is widely used to proxy gold price exposure. Similarly, iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is the premier silver ETF, reflecting broader investor positioning in silver. Over the week ending January 31, both ETFs experienced sharp swings. GLD dipped from recent highs, while SLV posted even larger percentage moves. This dip reflected silver’s historically higher volatility and tendency to amplify market sentiment shifts.

📉 Late-January ETF Safe Haven Volatility

Data from the week of January 12–18 shows how sharply these assets have been moving.

  • GLD (Gold) demonstrated an intra-week range of about ~2.35 %. Its annualized volatility of ~13 % over this week indicated relatively contained swings for gold historically—even as spot prices rose.
  • SLV (Silver) exhibited an intra-week range above ~11.5%. Its annualized volatility above ~75 % over this week underscored silver’s tendency for much larger price oscillations.

In other words, silver’s volatility, especially in extreme market episodes, can be much more than that of gold, reinforcing the idea that SLV carries greater short-term risk for traders and investors alike.

📌 Historical Risk Metrics for a Safe Haven

Longer-term risk figures support this short-term pattern.

Gold and Silver as a safe haven? Volatility is back.
Gold, Silver, U.S. Stocks, and Aggregate Bond ETF performance over the last 12 months, as of January 30, 2026. Source: https://www.etfreplay.com/charts
  • Silver ETF SLV has historically shown higher volatility compared with gold ETFs, meaning silver prices tend to swing harder and more often than gold when markets shift sentiment or macro drivers change.
  • Gold ETF GLD’s lower volatility has often made it a preferred choice for risk-averse investors seeking stability.

🧠 What This Means for Investors

The late-January sell-offs and reversals — where precious metals retreated significantly after touching record highs — illustrate that safe-haven status doesn’t equate to smooth performance in every market environment. Sharp reversals driven by shifts in monetary policy expectations or risk appetite can quickly compress profits and widen losses, particularly for more volatile assets like silver.

In short, gold and silver may still play roles as portfolio diversifiers or long-term hedges — but recent prices in GLD and SLV remind us that volatility is very real, and risk metrics matter when evaluating these in a diversified portfolio.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in tax-efficient investing with ETFs

Returns in 2025 for U.S. Stock ETFs: A Strong Year

The U.S. stock market delivered solid returns in 2025. Investors benefited from artificial intelligence enthusiasm, late-year Federal Reserve rate cuts, and strong earnings across several key industries. According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. stock funds and ETFs returned an average of about 14.6% for the year. Consequently, 2025 marked a third consecutive year of double-digit gains. As we discussed previously, the market performed well despite heightened volatility early in the year,

At the broad market level, the S&P 500 (ticker: IVV) posted a robust 17.8% total return for the year. Large-cap technology and cyclical shares contributed most significantly, according to ETFReplay.com and Yahoo Finance. The Nasdaq-100 (ticker: QQQ) outperformed the broader market. Mega-cap tech names continued to anchor market breadth late into the year as optimism around AI deployment persisted.

Total Returns in 2025 for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and other U.S. Sectors ETFs. Source: ETFReplay.com
Total Returns in 2025 for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and other U.S. sector ETFs. Source: ETFReplay.com

Sector Leaders and Laggards

Sector ETF returns in 2025 highlighted both rotation and concentrated leadership:

  • Communication Services (XTL) was the top performer, benefiting from investments in data centers and cloud computing.
  • Technology (XLK) was among the top performers, with total return growth powered by demand for semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and software. Many XLK holdings significantly outpaced the broader market over multiple time horizons.
  • Industrials (XLI) also delivered strong returns as economic activity and capital investment improved, reflecting strength in industrial and transportation names.
  • Financials (XLF) and Healthcare (XLV) logged solid gains, as bank profitability rebounded and health care stocks rallied on earnings beats and defensive positioning.
  • Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP), traditionally defensive sectors, generated positive but more modest returns, with staples lagging as investors favored growth-oriented ETFs.
  • Materials (XLB) and Energy (XLE) posted marginal returns, supported by commodity demand and stable energy prices, but lacked the momentum seen in tech and cyclical sectors.
  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) saw mixed performance, often tied to retail sentiment and macroeconomic shifts throughout the year.

Market Themes from Returns in 2025

While AI-linked ETFs — including in XLK and QQQ — powered much of the returns in 2025, concerns about valuation and potential “AI bubble” dynamics persisted. Broad macro swings — from tariff-driven drawdowns to four rate cuts by the Federal Reserve — underscored a year of notable volatility even as the market finished strong.

In summary, 2025 rewarded long-term investors with healthy total returns but also demonstrated the importance of sector diversification — as illustrated by the contrasting performance among ETFs like XLK, XLI, XLF, and defensive plays like XLU and XLP.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in tax-efficient investing with ETFs

The Great Social Security Debate: Claim Early or Wait for a Larger Payoff?

The conventional “gold standard” advice for retirement is simple: delay claiming Social Security until age 70. Why? Because for every year you wait past your full retirement age, your benefit grows by 8% annually. Consequently, delaying provides the maximum possible inflation-protected life annuity. This decision can be a powerful hedge against longevity risk. So, it can create a larger safety net should you or a spouse live into your 90s.

Despite this clear benefit, few delay until age 70. In fact, the vast majority of retirees claim their benefits early, often at the minimum age of 62. For many, the choice isn’t financial optimization but necessity. They are being pushed out of the workplace or simply feeling they cannot afford to wait. There are also several tax implications to this decision.

The Great Social Security Debate: Claim Early or Wait for a Larger Payoff?
The debate continues over when a retiree should begin to claim Social Security

Some Arguments for Claiming Social Security Early

For those with adequate savings, a growing school of thought challenges the wisdom of delaying. Critics argue that traditional advice overstates the value of future benefits by using unrealistically low discount rates (0% to 2%). For example, the opportunity cost of a retiree’s potential portfolio growth makes delaying less attractive.

Furthermore, early claiming mitigates several real-world risks:

  • Mortality Risk: Claiming early ensures you collect benefits, reducing the risk of dying before reaching the break-even age.
  • Sequence-of-Returns Risk: Drawing income from your portfolio to delay Social Security can amplify losses during a market downturn.
  • Flexibility: Social Security doesn’t offer lump sums for unexpected needs, meaning a preserved portfolio provides better spending optionality.
  • Behavioral: Retirees are often more willing to spend a guaranteed income stream. However, they may be reluctant to draw down a nest egg. So, early claiming may potentially solve the problem of underspending in the healthiest years of retirement.

A Personalized Decision

So, early claiming can be a rational choice, especially for those with health concerns or a limited nest egg. Ultimately, the best age is unique to you, and you may benefit from running some online calculators. The key is to assess your health, your need for early cash flow, and your portfolio’s size. We suggest you take this information and use an online calculator. For example, you can try Mike Piper’s Open Social Security or our Optimal Retirement Income Calculator.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in tax-efficient investing with ETFs

Research Showcase Presentation at FPA Annual Meeting

On November 3, 2025, I presented at the FPA (Financial Planning Association) research showcase. Ed McQuarrie from Santa Clara University and Philip Goldfeder from Northwestern University also contributed to this work. Our presentation evaluates Roth conversions and early account distributions to boost after-tax retirement and taxable wealth. Our work was motivated by our previously published research and Laura Saunders’ WSJ article “When Paying More Tax, Not Less, Is the Smart Play”. In this post, we highlight the key findings of our presentation.

Seeking Tax Alpha

Our presentation at the research showcase considered three alternatives to increase after-tax wealth through tax efficiency from a single-year model. All alternatives assumed a “default” approach, called the Common Rule, which aims to defer taxes for as long as possible. We then considered three alternatives to meet a current-year $300,000 after-tax retirement income need while maximizing after-tax wealth.

  • Common Rule, but also including Roth conversions
  • Optimal Rule, which mixes tax-deferred, tax-exempt, and taxable income sources. This approach uses a general-purpose global non-linear optimization algorithm available in Excel spreadsheets.
  • Optimal Rule, but also including the possibility of further improvements from Roth conversions.

We determined tax alpha as the additional investment returns needed to achieve the same after-tax wealth using the Common Rule. Our financial model included salient elements from the U.S. tax code.

  • Income tax, capital gains tax, Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT), and Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA)

Our baseline model assumed a single retiree, age 62, who has not yet started any social security or pension income. We then considered a number of variations of this hypothetical example.

  • Married Filing Jointly, different after-tax income needs, different tax rates for a non-spouse heir, and different cost bases in their taxable account.

Research Showcase Key findings

Consistent with our previously published work, we demonstrated that the tax alpha was significantly higher with the Optimal Rule than the Common Rule with Roth conversions. This is largely due to the capital gain tax triggered to pay the tax liability on the conversion from the taxable account.

Our next key finding was that there was more than one optimal solution. The image below shows that there is a range of distributions from a tax-deferred account and a Roth account that achieves the same after-tax wealth of $5,262,315.

Wealth and Income at Alternative Optimal Solutions, FPA Research Showcase, November 3, 2025, Las Vegas, Nevada.
Wealth and Income at Alternative Optimal Solutions, FPA Research Showcase, November 3, 2025, Las Vegas, Nevada.

We show that these alternative optimal solutions are due to exploiting tax-deferred income up to the 32% income tax bracket, which we assumed as the non-spouse heir’s marginal rate. Other key findings include that, depending on the model’s assumptions, tax alpha can range from 0.26% to 0.91% per year. Additionally, these tax alphas are largely insensitive to inflation rates and market returns, consistent with another previously published article.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in tax-efficient investing with ETFs

The End of the Tax-Deferred Catch-Up Contribution for High Earners

Beginning in 2026, a key break that many older, higher-earning workers have relied upon will disappear. Under new IRS rules implementing the SECURE 2.0 Act, individuals age 50 or older who earned more than $145,000 from a single employer in the prior year must now make their 401(k) catch-up contribution on a Roth (after-tax) basis—meaning the contribution will no longer be tax-deferred. In this post, we discuss the pros and cons of this change. We also provide some suggestions on what you can do to adapt to the change in your catch-up contribution, including using a free online financial planning calculator.

Catch-up contributions for high earners are changing in 2026.
Catch-up contributions for high earners are set to change in 2026.

Benefits from this change in your catch-up contribution

  • Tax-free growth and withdrawals: The employee must make the catch-up contribution with after-tax income. But the retiree doesn’t pay taxes on future growth or qualified withdrawals from the Roth portion. So, using these funds can help avoid pushing a retiree into a higher marginal tax bracket.
  • No required minimum distributions (RMDs): Roth funds offer more flexibility in retirement. Thus, there are no forced distributions, so these funds can continue to grow tax-free longer.
  • Tax certainty: You know the tax cost now, which may reduce surprises later if tax rates rise. This certainty can help avoid other retiree expenses that higher taxable income can trigger, like the Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA) surcharge.

Cons from this change in your catch-up contribution

Next Steps

To start, one can check their employer’s retirement plan options to see if a Roth option exists. If your employer’s plan doesn’t currently permit Roth contributions, you can ask your retirement plan administrators to add the option so employees can continue to make catch-up contributions.

Another step is to run some tax projections. ETFMathGuy offers a free calculator to simulate future values of retirement savings. It includes future contributions into a combination of tax-deferred, Roth, and taxable accounts.

Our Free Online Savings Calculator from ETFMathGuy can estimate the effect of the new catch-up contribution rule on your retirement savings
Our Free Online Savings Calculator from ETFMathGuy can estimate the effect of the new catch-up contribution rule on your retirement savings

Big Picture

The shift in 2026 marks a significant change for older, higher-earning workers who count on catch-up contributions for late-stage retirement savings. The removal of tax deferral is a tradeoff—pay tax now, but get more tax-free growth later. For many, the right path will be a mixed strategy, careful planning, and flexibility.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in tax-efficient investing with ETFs

Extra Profiles for Our Optimal Retirement Income Calculator

Happy Labor Day Weekend! Our mission at ETFMathGuy is to educate investors seeking tax-efficient investing and financial plans. So, we continue to provide online access to algorithms that produce tax-efficient retirement income based on our award-winning published research. Today, we are happy to announce extra profiles, an upgraded feature requested by financial services professionals. Now, users may save profiles for more than two scenarios. We hope this new feature will better support advisors and their clients as they navigate the optimal decision-making process and the complexity of producing tax-efficient retirement income.

Users may now save extra profiles for more than two clients seeking tax-efficient retirement income with our software.
The main page for interactive personal finance calculators is at https://apps.etfmathguy.com

Enabling Extra Profiles

By default, all free and paid subscribers of the Optimal Retirement Income Calculator can create two profiles. Accordingly, these two profiles can store situations like “best case” and “worst case” outcomes for a retiree, and if applicable, their spouse.

Users may now save extra profiles for more than two clients seeking tax-efficient retirement income with our software.
All free and paid subscribers have access to up to two complete profiles. Saving profiles help expedite retirement income calculations, source: https://apps.etfmathguy.com/clients

However, financial advisors often help guide the retirement income of many clients. So, our extra profiles feature now enables this capability across three tiers of advisors.

  • Tier 1: Basic Advisor – Manage up to 10 client profiles
  • Tier 2: Standard Advisor – Manage up to 50 client profiles
  • Tier 3: Premium Advisor – Manage up to 300 client profiles
Users may now save extra profiles for more than two clients seeking tax-efficient retirement income with our software.
Client Profile Page for Tier 1 Extra Profiles, https://apps.etfmathguy.com/clients

Discount for Current Subscribers and a Holiday Discount

We are offering a special “thank you” to current paid subscribers to the Optimal Retirement Income Calculator by offering a 20% discount on your first year of extra profiles. The billing process is also simplified by pro-rating the extra profile price to correspond with your annual renewal date.

Not yet a subscriber to the Optimal Retirement Income Calculator? For the next 30 days, we are offering a 25% off sale on this annual subscription. Therefore, please enter the promo code laborday2025 after selecting the “Subscribe” button under the Optimal Retirement Income Calculator on your account’s profile page.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in tax-efficient investing with ETFs

Using ETFs to understand recent activity in the US economy

The US economy continues to navigate a complex landscape. Recent events include fluctuating inflation, evolving labor market dynamics, and the Federal Reserve’s ongoing efforts to achieve price stability. While certain sectors have demonstrated resilience, others are showing signs of cooling, creating a mixed picture for ETF investors. And, reversing trends in globalization continues.

black blue and red graph illustration
Using ETFs to understand recent activity in the US economy
Source: Burak The Weekender on Pexels.com

Stock ETFs and the US Economy

The labor market, a pillar of strength for much of the past year, is showing subtle signs of moderation. While the unemployment rate remains low, job growth has slowed, and initial jobless claims have edged up slightly. This suggests a potential cooling in demand for labor, which could eventually help to ease wage pressures and contribute to lower inflation. Investors tracking the broad equity market through passively managed ETFs like IVV (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF) have witnessed the market’s sensitivity to these economic data points and the Fed’s reactions.

Bond ETFs

The bond market, as reflected in ETFs such as AGG (iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF), has also experienced volatility. Rising interest rates have generally led to lower bond prices. But, expectations of future rate cuts can influence yields, prices, and investor sentiment. AGG, representing a broad basket of investment-grade US bonds, serves as a benchmark for overall bond market performance and investor risk appetite in fixed income.

In times of economic uncertainty, investors often turn to lower-risk assets. BIL (SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF), which invests in short-term US Treasury bills, can be seen as a safe haven. Increased flows into BIL may indicate a more risk-averse sentiment among investors, reflecting concerns about the economic outlook.

US Economic Direction

Overall, the recent state of economic activity in the US presents a nuanced picture. While inflation remains a concern and the labor market is showing signs of cooling, the economy has so far avoided a sharp downturn. The performance of passively managed ETFs like IVV, AGG, and BIL offers a glimpse into how investors are interpreting and acting on these economic signals. Continued monitoring of these ETFs will be crucial in understanding the trajectory of the US economy in the months ahead.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in tax-efficient investing with ETFs

2025 Mid-year Sector Review

Happy Independence Day from ETFMathGuy! Similar to what we posted at the halfway point of 2024, this post summarizes the mid-year sector review and ETF performance in 2025. Accordingly, we highlight some of the newest trends and identify the strongest and weakest sectors this year.

This post summarizes the mid-year sector review and ETF performance in 2025, and identify the strongest and weakest sectors this year.
Photo by Brett Sayles on Pexels.com

Review of the 11 Sectors of the S&P 500

Indeed, there are 11 sectors in the S&P 500, as shown below. Therefore, while some of these sectors have several ETFs tracking them, we have chosen the ETFs in parentheses due to their long-standing presence in the markets. In our analysis below, we also consider the S&P 500 Index ETF (ticker: IVV), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ETF (ticker: QQQ).

  • Information Technology (XLK)
  • Health Care (XLV)
  • Financials (XLF)
  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
  • Communication Services (XTL)
  • Industrials (XLI)
  • Consumer Staples (XLP)
  • Energy (XLE)
  • Utilities (XLU)
  • Real Estate (IYR)
  • Materials (XLB)

Consequently, using this list and reinvesting dividends, our sector review reveals that some sectors had total returns that did very well in the first half of 2025. However, a couple of sectors, such as Health Care and Consumer Discretionary, lost value in the first half of 2025.

This post summarizes the mid-year sector review and ETF performance in 2025, and identify the strongest and weakest sectors this year.
2025 Mid-year review of S&P 500 sector ETFs. Total Returns. Source: https://www.etfreplay.com/charts.aspx

Analysis and Insights from our Sector Review

Outperformers occurred in six sectors, suggesting a strong cyclical comeback. Leading the way were Industrials, Communication Services, and Technology sectors. Moreover, we see that Financials, Materials, and Utilities also outperformed the S&P 500. Our sector review is in sharp contrast to the mid-year review from 2024 when only one sector (Technology) outperformed the S&P 500. These trends appear to be due to easing tariff fears, a resilient labor market, and expectations of rate cuts. It also shows that the outperformance occurred in both the growth and value sectors of the S&P 500.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in tax-efficient investing with ETFs

Globalization and International Stock ETFs

Globalization over the last several decades has increased the correlation between domestic and international stock ETF returns. In this post, we quantify how this relationship has recently changed, what may be contributing to this change, and what it means for ETF investors.

Correlation changing?

Correlation measures potential portfolio diversification benefits. A high correlation indicates that the prices of two assets move similarly to one another. For diversification benefits, portfolios should contain assets that do not exhibit high correlation with each other. We previously discussed the correlation between the S&P 500 and a wide variety of asset classes. Below, we show that there appears to be a recent downward trend in correlation between U.S. and international stocks.

90-day Correlation of Total Returns of International Stocks (VEA) against the S&P 500. Downward trending suggests a reduction in globalization.
90-day Correlation of Total Returns of International Stocks (VEA) against the S&P 500

Here, the short-term correlation between the total returns of the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (ticker: IVV) and the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (ticker: VEA) hit a recent low from its longer-term average. This reduction in correlation suggests that U.S. and international stock markets are moving more independently than in the past. Thus, there is the potential to offer enhanced diversification benefits for investors.

Tariffs and Globalization

The most likely explanation of lower correlations is the news of significant tariffs on imported goods to the U.S., and perhaps more broadly, due to different central bank policies and geopolitical factors. This new trend appears to be reversing much of the investments in globalization that led to a high correlation between domestic and international stock markets. However, since most of these investments take some time to go into effect, we shouldn’t expect a rapid shift in correlations between domestic and international stock markets. The longer and more significant the tariffs are, the greater the chance that globalization will decrease. For ETF investors, enhanced diversification from international stock market investments may offer greater risk reduction than it did previously.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in tax-efficient investing with ETFs

Bond ETFs and Money Market Funds

One of our favorite WSJ writers this week provided a critical analysis of money market funds, which many individual investors use to hold their cash. In this post, we discuss the similarities and differences between money market funds and ETFs that invest in treasury bills.

The purpose of money market funds

One purpose of a money market fund in a taxable brokerage account is to provide a place for cash to stay after it is transferred in from an outside source, like a bank checking or savings account. It also serves as a holding place for securities after they are sold. But some investors are also using them as a safe haven to avoid sharp changes in the stock market. Unfortunately, these funds tend to charge relatively high fees compared to ETFs that provide a similar safe haven. According to this WSJ article, the average money market fund charges 0.51% in fees and yields 3.89%.

But you’re probably getting ripped off on your money-market funds—and it’s one of the biggest heists on Wall Street.

Jason Zweig, WSJ columnist, May 2, 2025

Brokerages also use money market funds as a “sweep” account for investors. So, investors can benefit from this feature by being able to write checks against these balances. However, the cost and convenience of assets in these funds, which often invest in short-term U.S. treasury bills, means investor returns underperform when compared to investing in an ETF with a similar level of risk.

Very low risk ETFs

Bond ETFs still have risks, depending on the type of bonds included in them. But some bond ETFs can provide investors with direct access to short-term treasury bills, which some would refer to as a good proxy for a risk-free rate. The list below shows several of these types of ETFs, along with their expense ratio and assets under management.

ETFTickerExpenseAssets Under Management
iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETFSGOV0.09%$45 B
SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETFBIL0.14%$47 B
iShares Short Treasury Bond ETFSHV0.15%$22 B
Three large ETFs investing in short-term U.S. treasury bills

Although the expense ratios are all quite similar, it is clear that the return of SGOV is likely to be the highest. The figure below shows this is true and that all of these ETFs had a slow and steady investment return over the last three years.

Total returns for the last three years of short-term U.S. treasury bill ETFs were higher than the average money market fund.
Total returns for the last three years of short-term U.S. treasury bill ETFs

So, investors willing to take the time to invest their money market funds into one of these ETFs can often earn very close to the current U.S. treasury bills yield, which in the last year was about 4.8%. Additionally, these ETF returns may be exempt from state taxes, unlike money market funds. Investors not needing the convenience of money market funds may wish to consider these ETFs as an alternative safe haven.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in tax-efficient investing with ETFs

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