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Upgrades to our Optimal Retirement Income Calculator

As promised, our free optimal retirement income calculator continues to improve based on your feedback. Thank you to everyone who has provided suggestions by contacting us! In this post, we highlight some of the most recent enhancements to this free online resource.

A Glide Path?

The term “Glide Path” is used to refer to shifting from one asset to another. Previously, our optimal retirement income calculator kept a retiree and their spouse’s asset allocation fixed. For example, our calculator previously maintained a fixed allocation (e.g. 60% stock and 40% bond) each year by drawing down accounts appropriately. Unfortunately, such an assumption is not entirely realistic. Instead, many retirees may wish to slowly reduce their “riskiness” in stocks and increase their “safety” of bonds during retirement.

A typical retirement glide path reduces portfolio risk each year. Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com
A typical retirement glide path reduces portfolio risk each year. Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com

One percent is a typical glide path, meaning that a retiree who is 60 years old starting with an asset allocation of 60/40 (stocks/bonds) will shift their asset allocation to 59/41 at 61 years old, 58/42 at 62 years old, and so forth.

Our optimal retirement income calculator now includes a glide path to transition from stocks to bonds during retirement.
Our optimal retirement income calculator now includes a glide path to transition from stocks to bonds during retirement.

Other updates to our optimal retirement income calculator

We also updated a number of the default values used to better reflect “typical” retiree demographics, as well as expected macroeconomics and capital market conditions. The list below summarizes these default changes.

  1. Retiree and spouse default ages changed to 65 and 62. This difference of three years is consistent with the average difference in retiree and spousal ages.
  2. The long-term rate of return of stocks and bonds set to 7.2% and 4%, based on the lifetime annualized returns for our stock and bond ETFs IVV and AGG.
  3. We set the retiree’s fraction of cost basis for stocks/bonds assuming a 10-year gain at their long-term rates. So, the cost basis for stocks stayed at 50%. But, the cost basis for bonds increased to 68%, since over 10 years, bond capital gains and reinvestment of dividends would yield a higher cost basis.
  4. Inflation rate set to 2.1%, based on an AR(1) stochastic process model and annual CPI (consumer price index) data from 1992-2020.

We hope you find these updates helpful as you plan for your financial future! Please stay tuned as there are still several suggestions we are still working on that will appear in the coming months.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Three Tips on Your Retirement Drawdown Strategy

Below are a few excerpts from my recent article published on the Pepperdine Business Blog. I hope you find these tips helpful when developing your retirement drawdown strategy, whether you are nearing or already in retirement.

Sources of Retirement Income

Your retirement income will differ in several ways from your working income. For many retirees in the U.S., social security will provide a “base” of income, and starts between ages 62 and 70.  Since the U.S. government keeps track of life expectancy, it is not surprising that retirees will receive smaller monthly social security payments if they begin drawing down social security at a younger age.  So, one drawn strategy could be to delaying social security until age 70, which can provide more income if the retiree expects to significantly outlive their peers.

Retirees often have many sources available to meet their retirement income needs.
Retirees often have many sources available to meet their retirement income needs.

To supplement social security, many retirees also employ a drawdown strategy to their taxable, tax-deferred (e.g. 401(k)s) and tax-exempt accounts (e.g. Roth IRAs). The Common Rule is the most common strategy, that begins by taking Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs). Then, the Common Rule draws funds from one account until no assets remain. This strategy then moves to the next account

Your heir’s tax rate

Extending portfolio longevity or increasing your heir’s inheritance requires some thought to your heir’s tax rate. Why? Tax-deferred accounts are more valuable when drawdowns occur at lower tax rates. So, if your heirs expect to have a high amount of taxable income, then it is usually more tax-efficient for you, the retiree, to draw down the tax-deferred account each year up to, but not exceeding, your heir’s tax rate. This drawdown strategy, which includes an assumption of your heir’s tax rate, is embodied in our free online calculator.

Click here to launch the Optimal Retirement Income Calculator by ETFMathGuy.
Click here to launch the Optimal Retirement Income Calculator by ETFMathGuy.

June 2021 ETFMathGuy Portfolios

As a final note, thank you to all of our premium subscribers! You can now access the June optimal portfolios, based on data through May 28th, 2021. Please note we built these ETF portfolios using our latest backtesting results.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Backtesting ETF portfolios

Backtesting ETF portfolios is a very important part of validating any investment strategy that uses them. At ETFMathGuy, we backtest our optimal portfolio construction strategy periodically. Doing so ensures that our quantitative methodology stays calibrated to the highest performing portfolios. Here, we discuss the key findings from this recent analysis.

Backtesting methodology

Our backtesting methodology follows the same approach we used in our previous backtesting analysis. The key distinction now is our time period begins in 2014 and runs through April of 2021. Also, we focused on one-month holding periods this time. Why? Based on our previous results, we found holding periods between 1-3 months had little impact on returns.

Backtesting ETF results over a longer-term

Firstly, the chart below shows the result of changing the duration of the sampling period on the out-of-sample returns. Note that there are two local maximums, with the first occurring and the 6-9 months, but a second more substantial maximum occurring at about 39 and 45 months.

Annualized returns from backtesting differing sample sizes. Source: ETFMathGuy.com
Annualized returns from backtesting differing sample sizes. Source: ETFMathGuy.com

However, when a risk-adjusted return is considered, we can improve this calibration. In the next figure, we show the annualized return divided by the annualized volatility. Thus, it’s clear that the 39 month sample period is superior with this measure for the moderate and aggressive portfolios. For the conservative portfolios, there is only a slight degradation in risk-adjusted return over these 7+ years of backtesting.

Annualized returns / volatility from backtesting differing sample sizes. Source: ETFMathGuy.com
Risk-adjusted returns from backtesting differing sample sizes. Source: ETFMathGuy.com

Backtesting ETF results over a shorter term

We also backtested our quantitative strategy over a shorter interval of the last 15 months, from January 2020, through April 2021. Ideally, our backtesting results over the long-term, shown above, should agree with this shorter time frame. And, in fact, they generally do.

Annualized returns and risk-adjusted returns from backtesting differing sample sizes. Source: ETFMathGuy.com
Annualized returns and risk-adjusted returns from backtesting differing sample sizes. Source: ETFMathGuy.com

Once again, with the slight exception of the conservative strategy, the 36-39 month sample size provided the largest annualized returns and risk-adjusted returns.

Key takeaways

  • Backtesting provides an estimate on how our quantitative strategy would have performed based on historical time periods.
  • The best calibration for the sample period occurs around 39 months based on both absolute return and risk-adjusted return.
  • Longer-term and shorter-term backtesting provided similar calibration results.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Step-up in cost basis on inherited ETFs may soon change

The new proposal called the “American Families Plan” could end the step-up in cost basis for inherited assets. But, what does this mean for ETF investors? In this post, we discuss some of the key details of this proposed plan. This post is also a reminder to our premium subscribers that the May portfolios are now available.

How have inherited ETFs been taxed up to now?

ETFs owned by retirees typically reside in one of three different kinds of accounts. The Secure Act changed the rules for assets in retirement accounts, like IRAs. I published an article about the reduced benefit of the stretch provision in IRAs recently. In summary, non-spouse beneficiaries must now draw down their IRA assets within 10 years. Previously, beneficiaries could limit their withdrawals to Required Minimum Distributions.

However, the American Families Plan proposes new rules on ETFs inherited from a retiree’s taxable account. Currently, an heir enjoys a full step-up in cost basis on inherited ETFs residing in a taxable account, meaning the heir could immediately sell the ETF and not owe any capital gains tax. For example, suppose a retiree purchased $100,000 of SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (ticker: SPY) on April 30, 2001, and reinvested all dividends for the next 20 years. On April 30, 2021, the investment would be worth approximately $484,000, not including any taxes due on the dividends generated by holding this ETF.

Growth of a $100,000 investment in the SPDR S*P 500 Index ETF (ticker SPY). Source: www.etfreplay.com
20 years of growth of a $100,000 investment in the SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (ticker SPY). Source: www.etfreplay.com

Selling appreciated ETFs under this new plan

If the retiree sells this ETF investment prior this his or her death, capital gains would be owed on it up to 20% of the $384,000 gain, or $76,800. However, if the retiree passes away, an heir could sell it immediately and not pay any capital gains taxes. The heir received a step-up in cost basis. The new basis is assigned to the day the retiree passed away. However, under the new plan, this step–up is removed, and replaced by a $1,000,000 exemption. So, in the previous example, the heir would not owe any additional taxes. However, as larger sums of ETFs assets are bequeathed, an heir may owe taxes up to the 39.6% rate. And, there is still the estate tax that may apply if the retiree has more than $11.7 million of assets at death for 2021.

Will this plan pass congress?

No one knows yet what will eventually be passed by congress, so it is likely too early to start making any changes to a retiree’s estate. Time will tell how this may or may not impact your ETF assets passed to your heirs.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Value or Growth ETFs?

Investors continue to debate the benefits of value versus growth investing. The recent rotation into value stocks has only heightened this discussion. But, what is the difference between these two investment approaches when using ETFs?

photo of person holding ceramic mug
Photo by Anna Nekrashevich on Pexels.com

How a firm uses its earnings

While there can be many ways to categorize an ETF as a “growth”, one very simple approach is to look at what the firms in the ETF do with their earnings. Businesses like banks, utilities, and well-established firms like Disney or Johnson & Johnson generally pay a dividend. Back in the days of high-priced commissions to buy and sell an ETF, these dividends were very convenient, because they provided cash to investors without requiring them to sell a portion of their shares. Of course, with most brokers providing $0 commission trades, this aspect of dividends is less compelling. Perhaps more importantly though, firms issue dividends when they prefer to return some earnings to the shareholder, rather than reinvesting it into the business.

Growth companies and dividends

Alternatively, most growth companies see that their earnings could be better used if reinvested in the firm. Reinvestment can take the form of a new production facility, research & development, or others. Technology stocks are most often referred to as growth stocks due to their often relentless pursuit of innovation. Notable examples of growth companies are Apple Inc., Microsoft, and Tesla.

What is a better investment?

The debate between value and growth investing appears never-ending. Consider the last 3 years of investment in the Vanguard Large Cap Growth and Value ETFs (tickers: VUG and VTV). For reference, the S&P 500 ETF from iShares (ticker: IVV) also appears, which is a blend of both kinds of stocks.

Three year of total return of large cap growth, value and the S&P 500. Source: www.ETFReplay.com
Three year total return of large cap growth, large cap value and the S&P 500. Source: www.ETFReplay.com

From this chart, the growth ETF outperformed the value ETF over the last three years by greater than a factor of two, while producing little additional volatility. However, so far in 2021, this value ETF performed better than the growth ETF by about 5%, as shown below. Additionally, this value ETF achieved this outperformance with lower volatility.

2021 year to date total return of large cap growth, value and the S&P 500. Source: www.ETFReplay.com
2021 year to date total return of large cap growth, value and the S&P 500. Source: www.ETFReplay.com

Diversify the effect away

Not sure if value or growth is right for you? A simple way to avoid this debate is to diversify into both growth and value simultaneously. By investing in an S&P 500 index ETF, you also get access to a single investment that is extremely liquid and very cost-efficient.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Risk-seeking investors and the first quarter of 2021

There was plenty of risk-seeking in the first quarter of 2021. So, how did the stock and bond market respond?

A Unique Quarter

This recent Wall Street Journal article summarized this first quarter well. The author identified the following contributors to recent market behavior due to risk-seeking investors.

  1. Meme stocks
  2. Interest rates
  3. Tech rotation

Meme stocks and the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)

The most popular “meme” stock was GameStop Corp. for risk-seeking investors. But, what is a meme stock? This source describes it as a stock that exhibits rapid price growth that is popular among millennials. Meme stocks can also be categorized by high volatility, fueled by the so-called Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) and panic selling. Time will tell if this category of stocks becomes more formalized, as many in the workforce return to their offices, thereby limiting their trading time. Of course, the effect of social media on stock trading isn’t likely to go away anytime soon.

A new trend in interest rates?

The other big news in the first quarter was the increase in interest rates. Long-term bond yields increased in February and March, after starting the year at 0.917%.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield in First Quarter of 2021. Source: MarketWatch.com
U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield in First Quarter of 2021. Source: MarketWatch.com

By the end of the first quarter of 2021, the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note yield rose to 1.745%. As we wrote about before, the price of a bond decreases when yields rise. Consequently, the iShares Core Total US Bond ETF fell, to a year-to-date loss of 3.4%.

Total Return of iShares Core Total US Bond ETF, First Quarter of 2021. Source: ETFReplay.com
Total Return of iShares Core Total US Bond ETF, First Quarter of 2021. Source: ETFReplay.com

Tech Rotation

The first quarter was also characterized by about a 5% return difference between the Dow and Nasdaq indices. For instance, Exxon Mobil Corp. is up 35% this year, while Amazon and Apple have lost 5% and 7.9%, respectively. Of course, no one knows if this rotation out of tech and into energy is a new trend or just a reaction to markets anticipating a future with more energy consumption due to increased commuting. But, these recent changes have been incorporated into our portfolio construction process to produce an update to our free and premium portfolios. We encourage you to log in to see how these ETF portfolios changed due to the latest market dynamics.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Future tax uncertainty

The economic stimulus signed this past week by President Biden has many investors wondering if taxes may change in the future. So here, we discuss the possibility of future tax uncertainty. We also show you how to assess this uncertainty in your retirement income plan using an upgrade to our optimal retirement calculator.

$1.9T of economic stimulus

On March 11, 2021, President Biden signed the $1.9T stimulus package. There are many elements to this aid package, including how it will be paid. However, the level of debt held by the U.S. government continues to grow relative to total economic output, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). One simple solution to reducing this debt burden is to increase individual and/or corporate taxes. And, in 2026, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expires. So, what plans should an individual investor be making today if tax rates change significantly in the coming years?

Our optimal retirement income calculator now models tax uncertainty

Since we don’t know what the U.S. Congress will decide in 2026, nor what a future president may sign into law, future tax uncertainty is important for retirement planning. To this end, we recently upgraded our optimal retirement calculator to include this future uncertainty.

Now, under section “Other tax-related information“, you will see two inputs to model this uncertainty. First, there is new input for a percent increase or decrease of future income and capital gains tax rates after the TCJA expires. The 2nd entry is the year this higher or lower rate will occur. The default input values assume that the TCJA will be extended throughout your retirement horizon.

Future tax uncertainty inputs for optimal retirement income planning. Source: app.etfmathguy.com
Future tax uncertainty inputs for optimal retirement income planning. Source: app.etfmathguy.com

A simple example of rising tax rates on a retirement income plan

So, what happens if tax rates increase by 20% in 2026? A retiree using the Common Rule strategy can expect their bequest to shrink by about $92,000, from $1.227M to $1.135M. However, the Optimal Rule only expects to shrink the inheritance by about $36,000, from $1.638M to 1.602M.

What can we conclude from this? First, and most obviously, higher tax rates will reduce an heir’s inheritance. But, more importantly, optimal drawdown strategies become even more important when tax rates rise, since there is more of an opportunity for tax efficiencies.

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Mr. Phil DeMuth at Conservative Wealth Management LLC for suggesting upgrading our calculator to include future tax uncertainty. Additionally, we wish to thank Mr. Noah Beecher at Cipolla Financial & Insurance Services for noting a discrepancy in our calculator’s pension income, which has now been corrected. For the many others who have sent us suggestions on other improvements to our online calculator, please stand by. More enhancements will be appearing in the coming months. Thank you for your suggestions and your patience!

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Bond Markets Fell in February 2021

ETFMathGuy optimal portfolios are now available to free and premium subscribers. Please log-in to see them now. In this post, we discuss how the bond markets fell with rising interest rates this past month, and its effect on the stock market and our ETF portfolios.

Bond markets fell. What is happening with interest rates?

The recent reaction of the bond markets appears to be due to investors being less convinced that U.S. Government interest rates will remain low for the long-term. Based on recent Wall Street Journal reporting, demand for the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has been “tepid”. With lesser demand come lower prices to stimulate buying. And, when prices go down in a bond, its interest rate goes up. How so? One simple way to think about this relationship is from the bond seller’s perspective. If the demand for bonds goes up, the bond seller can set a lower fixed interest rate and still find a buyer. Conversely, the bond seller must provide higher fixed interest rates, thereby compensating the bond investor more, if demand is low. If all this sounds confusing, please take a look at the nice visual representation below.

The seesaw relationship between bond prices and interest rates. Source: Securities & Exchange Commission
The seesaw relationship between bond prices and interest rates. Source: Securities & Exchange Commission

Why is demand low for U.S. Government bonds?

The most obvious explanation for the low demand for bonds is the large amount of debt the U.S. Government is expected to sell to fund the ongoing stimulus efforts. One measurable effect of this stimulus is to continue to keep the U.S.’s debt-to-GDP ratio above 100%. Servicing this debt will slowly become more expensive as interest rates rise.

How did ETFMathGuy Premium Portfolios do in February 2021?

Our portfolios gave back some of their gains in January, in part due to the increased chance that interest rates may be on the rise, increasing corporate borrowing costs. The chart below shows the year-to-date returns of stocks, bonds, and ETFMathGuy premium portfolios held at Fidelity and Schwab. Notice how the low demand for bonds has reduced the total return for the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (ticker: AGG).

Total returns for ETFMathGuy premium portfolios for January and Februrary, 2021

We hope this post provided you with some helpful perspectives on why the bond markets fell, and how the stock market, ETFs, and the overall economy are all dependent on one another.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Presentation to over 1,800 financial advisors on retirement drawdown strategies

A webinar attended by over 1,800 financial advisors recently featured ETFMathGuy to discuss retirement drawdown strategies. Subsequently, the Retirement Income Journal wrote about this event. In this posting, we will discuss some of the highlights of this webinar. Please click the image below to view the 60-minute webcast. Or, you can browse the slides.

Webcast recording: A Deep Dive Into Retirement Drawdown Strategies.

Webinar highlights

As the title of the webinar indicated, its emphasis was on retirement drawdown strategies. Our host, Steve Parrish discussed some of the recent changes to Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) that resulted from the SECURE Act, as well as where tax law may go in the future. Steve also wrote a really nice article recently in Forbes entitled “Three Reasons to Take Your RMDs Now“. Joe Elsasser, Founder and President of Covisum, a FinTech company specializing in retirement drawdown strategies, also presented. Joe showed how his firm’s software can identify the so-called “tax torpedo“, and assist retirees on how to plan accordingly.

After that, I discussed two research articles on retirement drawdown strategies. To begin, I quantified the impact of eliminating the stretch IRA for non-spouse heirs, which I highlighted in a previous ETFMathGuy posting. The key takeaway from this peer-reviewed article was that there is still a benefit to an heir to stretch their IRA drawdowns over the 10-years permitted by the SECURE Act. Doing so can increase the heir’s inherited assets by 11-17%, depending on their specific situation.

Emerging Research

I also spent a portion of my presentation to this large group of financial advisors discussing some of my latest research. This recent work builds upon some of my previous publications with Dr. Dan Ostrov at Santa Clara University. In this latest research, I identified the use of the Common Rule as a diagnostic for the next stage of optimal decision making for retirement income. The image below summarizes the preliminary findings for three categories of retirees.

The sensitivity of optimal drawdown strategies for three categories of retirees. Forthcoming research by DiLellio and Simon (2021)

Thank you for your feedback

I would like to thank the many financial advisors who recently tried out my retirement calculator. So, I am logging all these helpful suggestions for improvements. I hope to have this free calculator updated shortly that begins to incorporate many of these suggestions. I will discuss some of the calculator enhancements in a future post.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETF efficient portfolios.

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Optimal Portfolio Updates for February 2021

ETFMathGuy optimal portfolios are now available to free and premium subscribers. Please log-in to see them now. In this post, we will discuss how the recent GameStop stock prices influenced these portfolios and our portfolio construction process.

Markets in 2021

The 2021 year in the ETF marketplace is already shaping up to be very interesting. The big news recently was the impact of stocks like GameStop’s 500% gain from Jan. 25 through Jan.29. Fortunately, most diversified ETFs saw little impact of this extreme price move. However, this rapid price gain did have a noticeable impact on two ETFs.

What ETFs were impacted most by GameStop?

According to this ETF.com article, two ETFs had their holdings in GameStop jump into double-digits weights. They were the Wedbush ETFMG Video Game Tech ETF (ticker: GAMR) and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (ticker XRT). In the case of GAMR, this ETF has the largest weighting of GameStop, currently at 26%. Notice, in the image below, that this holding is more than 10-times larger than the next largest one.

Top 10 Holding for the Wedbush ETFMG Video Game Tech ETF (ticker: GAMR). Source: etfmg.com/funds/gamr
Top 10 Holding for the Wedbush ETFMG Video Game Tech ETF (ticker: GAMR). Source: etfmg.com/funds/gamr

Less extreme is the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (ticker: XRT), which currently holds 12% of its assets in GameStop. So, these two ETFs are not as diversified as one might expect.

Did these ETFs impact the ETFMathGuy portfolios?

The short answer to this question is “no”, because of our portfolio construction process begins with a curated list of ETFs. For this month, we chose to intentionally exclude GAMR due to the excessive level of risk associated with holding large amounts of GameStop stock. Fortunately, there were still many ETFs to pick from to build our optimal portfolios, creating plenty of other opportunity for gains. And, gains for 2021 have been good so far. Below is an image showing total returns for stocks (ticker: IVV), bonds (ticker: AGG) and our three premium portfolios invested in real brokerage accounts at Schwab and Fidelity.

Total returns for ETFMathGuy premium portfolios in January, 2021
Total returns for ETFMathGuy premium portfolios in January, 2021

We were happy to see these returns in January, which continues the strong returns from 2020. Please watch for future posts where we will continue our discussion on ETFs, the economy and tax-efficient retirement income.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.

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