Category: Economic news

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AI and the S&P 500

Artificial intelligence (AI) continues to impact markets like the S&P 500 in 2024. If you are already invested in broad-based ETFs, you may be invested in AI, whether you realize it or not. In this post, we discuss how AI companies are influencing cap-weighted indices.

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Fear of Missing Out

Jason Zweig at The Wall Street Journal recently wrote an article about one of the leading AI companies Nvidia. In his article, he noted how this company was now more than 4% of the S&P 500 index, thanks to its recent rise in share price.

And, other companies working in the AI space are also seeing very positive share price increases, like Microsoft. In fact, according to this page on ETF.com, Microsoft and Nvidia now account for about 11.5% of the S&P 500 index. This weighting of AI in the S&P 500 is due to the S&P 500 being a “cap-weighted” index.

A stock market index wherein each component is weighted relative to its total market capitalization

What is a Capitalization-Weighted Index? source: Corporate Finance Institute (CFI)

So, even if an investor thinks they may have “missed out”, they have not if they owned an S&P 500 ETF or some other cap-weighted index fund.

Other firms in the S&P 500

Because the S&P 500 is cap-weighted, the firms in this index become more (or less) significant as their market capitalization increases (or decreases). The image below shows the current top-10 holdings in the S&P 500 ETF (ticker: IVV). Note that over half of those in this list are tech firms that are at the forefront of AI. In fact, for investors in Apple, there may not be enough investment in AI.

Top 10 holdings in the S&P 500 ETF IVV. Source: etf.com
Top 10 holdings in the S&P 500 ETF IVV. Source: etf.com

ETF investor options to embrace or avoid AI

Hopefully, ETF investors realize that they may already have AI investments, if they are invested in one of the ETFs tracking the S&P 500, like VOO, IVV, or the oldest ETF SPY. Alternatively, ETF investors wishing to embrace AI more may seek tech-centric ETFs, like XLK. Or, by seeking dividend-paying stocks not seeking growth from AI, an ETF investor may seek funds like DVY or VTV. Investor preference for growth in the AI space will likely affect investments for many years to come.

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Inflation trends

The Federal Reserve’s recent announcement to hold short-term interest rates at 5.25-5.5% was well received by the markets this past week and was clearly influenced by inflation trends. After the S&P 500 recently fell into a “correction”, defined as a 10% drop from a recent peak, the index returned over 5% last week. In this post, we highlight recent inflation trends towards lower rates and note that there is still some work to do to reach the Fed’s target inflation of 2%.

Inflation over the last 12 months

According to Statistica.com, the 12-month inflation rate was 3.7%. As the chart below shows, this is a significant reduction in peak inflation of over 9% in June 2022. This reduction was largely due to seven quarters of increasing short-term interest rates, which should reduce economic activity by increasing borrowing costs. But, the Fed also has a mandate to keep unemployment low.

Monthly 12-month inflation rate in the United States from September 2020 to September 2023.
Monthly 12-month inflation rate in the United States from September 2020 to September 2023.
Source: Statistica

Unemployment and a soft landing?

Unemployment has stayed low, as the next chart shows.

Monthly unemployment rate

It is our opinion that the Federal Reserve appears to be close to reaching its goals of low unemployment and inflation. And, this all appears to be happening without triggering a recession. Our final chart shows GDP, which when its rate is negative for two quarters, is the official trigger for a recession in the U.S. As this WSJ article notes, the U.S. economy is “Improbably Strong”.

Real GDP

We conclude from these macroeconomic indicators that the U.S. economy, inflation, and unemployment appear good for now. With the year nearly over, we will see very soon how consumer sentiment and consumer spending around the holidays may influence these indicators.

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The Federal Funds Rate and ETFs

In early 2022, the U.S. Federal Reserve began raising the federal funds rate in an effort to reduce inflation. According to TradingEconomics.com, this effective rate grew from near 0% to over 5% in the past seven quarters, reaching a 22-year high. In this post, we examine ETF returns during this period of rate increases.

Stock and Bonds ETFs

The chart below shows the last seven quarters of ETF total returns, which includes price appreciation and short-term capital gains. This time frame corresponds to the increase in the federal funds rate. Investors saw positive returns in only two ETFs during this period of increasing rates.

Stock, Bond, and Cash ETF total returns during the recent period of increasing federal funds rate.
Stock, Bond, and Cash ETF total returns during the recent period of increasing federal funds rate.
Source: ETFreplay.com

Stock ETF returns during this period were mixed. As shown in black, the iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (ticker: IVE) was the best-performing stock ETF. During this time, the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (ticker: IVV) in green and the iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (ticker: IVW) in red lost 7% and 17%, respectively. Clearly, investors preferred value over growth during this period. Investors may have had concerns about the increasing cost of financing a firm’s growth opportunities. Alternatively, investors may have preferred dividend-producing firms commonly found with value stocks.

Intermediate and short-term Bond ETFs returns and increasing federal funds rate

The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (ticker: AGG) also had a negative return during this period, consistent with how rising bond yields generally reduce bond prices. However, for short-term treasury bond ETFs like the iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (ticker: SHV), investors saw a slow and steady climb. As we’ve written before, the increasing federal funds rate contributed to this growth. And, this short-term bond fund also has tax-efficient benefits when compared to money market funds and short-term certificates of deposit.

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2023 Mid-Year Review of Stock-Based ETFs

With the first half of 2023 now past, we devote this post to a mid-year review of ETFs in a variety of stock sectors within the S&P 500. As we will see, while this broad market index of large-cap stocks did well, there was significant variation in returns across the sectors of the S&P 500.

Sectors of the S&P 500

There are 11 sectors in the S&P 500 as shown below. While some of these sectors have several ETFs tracking them, we choose the ETFs in parentheses due to their long history in the markets.

  • Information Technology (XLK)
  • Health Care (XLV)
  • Financials (XLF)
  • Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
  • Communication Services (XTL)
  • Industrials (XLI)
  • Consumer Staples (XLP)
  • Energy (XLE)
  • Utilities (XLU)
  • Real Estate (IYR)
  • Materials (XLB)

Using this list and reinvesting dividends, we see that some sectors had total returns that did very well in the first half of 2023, and several did not.

2023 mid-year review of S&P 500 sector ETFs
2023 Mid-year review of S&P 500 sector ETFs. Total Returns. Source: https://www.etfreplay.com/charts.aspx

2023 mid-year sector winners

As the figure shows, the technology and consumer discretionary sectors had the highest total return so far in 2023. In retrospect, the technology sector gains were possibly fueled by sector layoffs that didn’t appear to hurt the investor’s view of the future profitability of this sector. Similarly, future expected consumer discretionary spending gave investors significant confidence in this sector. And, overall, the S&P 500 gained nearly 17% in the first half of 2023. At this rate, the effect of the 3rd year in a presidential cycle on stocks may remain true in 2023.

Losses in the first half of 2023

The energy and utility sectors were the worst-performing sectors of the S&P 500 in the first half of 2023. With increasing interest rates, long-term investments by these sector participants are becoming increasingly expensive. So, it appears that investors don’t see strong prospects for profitability in these sectors.

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A Presidential Cycle and the Markets

The stock and bond markets are off to a great start for 2023. This news is especially notable after a difficult 2022 for stock-based ETF investors. Including dividends and interest, the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF is up 6.3%, and the iShares Core Total US Bond ETF is up 3.3%. While a strong start can be helpful against losses later in the year, what may be more relevant is that we are now in the third year of a presidential cycle. In this article, we discuss this unusually strong relationship.

Data since 1933

According to a researcher at Charles Schwab using data from 1933 to 2015, the S&P 500 had average returns in the first, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th years of a presidential cycle of 6.7%, 5.8%, 16.3%, and 6.7%, respectively. So, in the third year of the presidential cycle, there was nearly a 10% increase in average returns. We revisited this data to include the end of the Obama administration, as well as the four years of the Trump administration and the first two years of the Biden administration. The results appear in the table below, which indicates that, even with the impact of the global coronavirus pandemic, the relationship still holds.

Presidential YearAverage Return (%)Sample Size
16.724
23.324
313.523
47.523
Average Returns of the S&P 500 from 1928 to 2022. Data Source: www.macrotrends.net

Clearly, we find that correlation is at play here, although the sample size is not very large. But, what could be the cause of this outperformance?

Possible Causes

A 2013 study at the University of Chicago attributed the effect of the 3rd year of a presidential cycle to increased future uncertainty of what a change of administration may cause. Others have argued that in the third year, the current administration has some momentum to start seeing the impact of their policies being implemented. But, it is always important to note that correlation is not causation, and there are likely many other factors at play that are producing this unusual market behavior. By the end of this year, we will see if the 3rd year of the Biden administration continues this outperformance.

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Inflation and Income Taxes in 2023

Happy 2023! Now is an excellent time to review changes to individual income tax brackets due to inflation. Here, we highlight the relationship between inflation and income taxes. To see details of all the 60 tax provisions changed for 2023, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) published this document.

How inflation and income taxes are related

As we discussed in our post from last month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues its downward trend. Unfortunately, the CPI of 7.1% for November is still above the long-term norm of 2-3%. However, there is some good news for U.S. income taxpayers in 2023. The IRS adjusts income tax brackets for inflation, so income and capital gains tax brackets in 2023 have increased by about 7%. The images below show these new brackets for income, capital gains, and the standard deduction.

Inflation and 2023 Income Tax Brackets for Single
2023 Income Tax Brackets for Single Filer
Inflation and 2023 Income Tax Brackets for Married Filing Jointly
2023 Income Tax Brackets for Married Filing Jointly
Source: https://taxfoundation.org/2023-tax-brackets

2023 tax rates on retirement income

So, income tax brackets recently changed in a significant way. Our optimal retirement income calculator now provides an updated forecast for after-tax retirement income using the 2023 tax brackets. Forecasts based on the Common Rule withdrawal strategy remain free for 2023. In addition, you can expedite your calculations by registering a free profile. For individuals or financial planners wishing to use our award-winning tool to see the details that led to their individualized tax alpha, please consider subscribing before the price goes up.

Click here to see your individualized tax alpha

Live Software Demonstration

On Saturday, January 14th from 10-11 am Pacific Time (1-2 pm Eastern Time), we will be conducting a live demonstration of our retirement income and retirement savings calculators, fielding your questions, and discussing new features planned for 2023. Please use the link below to join us at this time. If you wish, please contact us prior to this demonstration with any questions you may have or use cases you wish to see.

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Live Software Demo on January 14, 2023, from 10-11 am Pacific (1-2 pm Eastern)

If you are unable to make this live software demonstration, please contact us to arrange for an individual demonstration.

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Inflation and ETFs

Inflation continues to persist higher than its long-term norm. Very few sectors of the U.S. economy have performed well. In this article, we discuss how ETFs designed with inflation in mind have fared in this current economic environment.

Historical rates of inflation

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is an excellent free source of historical rates of inflation. The image below shows this data for the last 20 years. Clearly, the current inflation rate is above the norm of 2-3%. However, it does appear to be down somewhat from its high in June. Fortunately, we don’t see any recent “grey” area in this chart, which represents the U.S. in a recession, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Inflation rates are still elevated above their long-term norm, but off of recent highs from June 2022

ETFs to protect against inflation

We chose three ETFs to show that not all ETFs are created equal in addressing inflation. Here, the acronym “TIPS” stands for “Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities”.

  • iShares Barclays TIPS ETF (ticker: TIP), $25B in assets
  • SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-10 Year TIPS ETF (ticker: TIPX), $1.4B in assets
  • Vanguard Short-term 0-5 year Inflation Protected ETF (ticker: VTIP), $17B in assets

    The most significant difference in these three ETFs is the term to maturity of the bonds contained within them. This difference has led to very different total returns for these three ETFs in 2022, as shown below.

    2022 Year-to-Date Total Return of Three ETFs offering inflation protection

    So, what’s going on?

    As one of my favorite writers at the Wall Street Journal recently wrote about, rising short-term interest rates are having greater impacts on the price of longer-dated bonds. This impact includes treasuries with inflation protection which each of these ETFs contains. The weighted average maturities for these three ETFs are 7.4 years, 4.7 years, and 2.5 years. By comparison, the broad-based iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF has a weighted average maturity of 8.7 years and is down about 11% in 2022. So here, we see the limitation of a fund, like an ETF, that maintains a steady average maturity. Rising interest rates are offsetting the inflation benefit. Unfortunately, investors can avoid this with a bond ladder, but doing so requires investors to leave the relative ease of investing in ETFs.

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    Asset Correlations in 2022

    In 2022, many long-term trends in asset correlation appear to be changing. In this post, we discuss the longer-term trends in several popular asset class correlations and highlight recent changes that continued from the first half of the year.

    Short-Term Correlations and Long-Term Trends

    The stock and bond markets continued their downward slide this month. The iShares Core S&P 500 losses for 2022 reached 24%. In addition, the bond markets continue their losses for the year, with the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond Market ETF down about 15%. This latter result is quite surprising, given the long-term correlation between the stock and bond market is 5%, but has recently grown to over 40%. Thus, the stock and bond market returns are more similar than they were in the past, so provide fewer diversification benefits. The chart below shows this upward trend in the correlation between the stock and bond markets in blue. The horizontal dotted line shows the long-term correlation from returns dating back to February 2004.

    90-Day Asset Correlation of Total Returns against the S&P 500 Index
    90-Day Asset Correlation of Total Returns against the S&P 500 Index

    Asset Correlation Among Other Sources

    The chart above also highlights the diminished effect of other sources on a portfolio’s diversification. For example, international equities are often sought for their diversification benefit. However, the long-term correlation of 88%, which also appears in this figures legend, hasn’t changed much this year. Bitcoin’s long-term correlation is 21%, but this correlation has steadily grown to over 60% this year. The one asset that has performed well this year is a direct investment in the U.S. Dollar ETF, ticker UUP. Long-term, the dollar has an insignificant correlation to the S&P 500. However, in 2022, the dollar’s correlation to the S&P 500 has grown significantly negative, as interest rate rises have increased demand for U.S. dollars. The chart below shows the total return of the five ETFs discussed here.

    2022 year to date returns of a variety of assets classes
    2022 Total Returns for ETFs associated with the S&P 500, Bonds, International, Bitcoin, and U.S. Dollars.

    Given the economic pressures creating these effects on the markets, the remainder of 2022 may continue to surprise investors. In particular, asset classes that formerly had low correlations to the stock market may continue to diverge from their long-term values.

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    Mid-year review of stock-based ETFs

    With the 1st half of 2022 now behind us, we devote this post to a mid-year review of ETFs in a variety of stock sectors. We also highlight some recent research on sectors that have historically held up well during periods of high inflation, and the benefit of time horizon when investing in stocks. We hope you find this mid-year review helpful!

    Record-breaking 1st half of 2022

    According to this MarketWatch article, the S&P 500 recorded its steepest 1st-half year loss in over 50 years. But, remember that the S&P 500 is a broad-based index consisting of many different companies across a variety of industries. In fact, there are 11 sectors in the S&P 500, which in order of size (and an ETF to represent them) are:

    • Information Technology (XLK)
    • Health Care (XLV)
    • Financials (XLF)
    • Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
    • Communication Services (XTL)
    • Industrials (XLI)
    • Consumer Staples (XLP)
    • Energy (XLE)
    • Utilities (XLU)
    • Real Estate (IYR)
    • Materials (XLB)

    Mid-year review of best and worst performing sector ETFs

    The chart below sorts the total return for the 11 ETFs identified above for 2022. As can be seen here, the biggest gains were among the energy sector (XLE) and the worst in consumer discretionary (XLY). Over this same period, the S&P 500 total return, measured by the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (ticker: IVV) was -19.2%. Also, note that the energy sector was the only ETF here that saw a positive return, which is not surprising given the war in Ukraine and its impact on supply in the energy sector.

    Mid-year review of returns from 11 sector-ETFs in the S&P 500 Index
    Mid-year review of returns from 11 sector-ETFs in the S&P 500 Index

    Where will stocks go from here and what to do about it?

    Given the current high inflation rates, Derek Horstmeyer at George Mason University recently showed the following “inflation fighters” in his June 5th Wall Street Journal Article.

    Best performing sectors during periods of high inflation. Source: Derek Horstmeyer
    Best performing sectors during periods of high inflation. Source: Derek Horstmeyer

    Of course, the most prudent course of action may be to simply do nothing based on this mid-year review. Given longer investment horizons, the stock market is less likely to suffer losses. Based on Bank of America research, the chart below supports this fact.

    But, as this article notes, behavioral economists know that the pain of loss is greater than the pleasure of gains. So, the 2nd half of this year remains quite uncertain, as market volatility remains elevated.

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    Inflation Hedging

    Inflation hedging continues to be of great interest for investors large and small. In this post, we quantify some possible ways to combat inflation based on a recent article in the WSJ.

    Historical Inflation Trend

    Inflation is currently around 6%, well above the 2% rate seen recently. The chart below shows how most of this change occurred in 2021. This rate is well above the 2% long-term target set by the Federal Reserve. So, what are some options for investors in this current inflation climate?

    Inflation is about 6% in late 2021

    Treasury inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)

    TIPS are one of the most obvious places investors look for inflation hedging. The iShares TIPS Bond ETF (ticker: TIP), with over $30 billion in assets, is a popular option. This ETF has performed notably better than a broad bond benchmark, like the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (ticker: AGG), as the chart below illustrates. Note that while TIP has slightly higher volatility than AGG, it performance in 2021 is noticably better. In fact, according to ETFReplay.com, the 2021 year-to-date return of TIP is 5.4%, versus -1.0% for AGG.

    Commodities

    There are certainly other options investors can consider. For example, investors often seek commodity investments when inflation rises. This recent study by Vanguard indicated that a 1% rise in inflation could produce a 7-9% rise in commodities. This estimate looks surprisingly accurate, as the ETF DBC (PowerShares DB Commodity Index) should be up 28-36% in 2021, given the inflation rate increase this year from 2% to 6%. In fact, DBC is up 32.7% in 2021, according to ETFReplay.com

    Updated optimal portfolios

    For subscribers of our ETF optimal portfolios, we encourage you to log in to see the latest updates. Note that, based on our latest backtesting, monthly portfolios change more quickly now to respond to market dynamics.

    ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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