Future tax uncertainty

The economic stimulus signed this past week by President Biden has many investors wondering if taxes may change in the future. So here, we discuss the possibility of future tax uncertainty. We also show you how to assess this uncertainty in your retirement income plan using an upgrade to our optimal retirement calculator.

$1.9T of economic stimulus

On March 11, 2021, President Biden signed the $1.9T stimulus package. There are many elements to this aid package, including how it will be paid. However, the level of debt held by the U.S. government continues to grow relative to total economic output, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). One simple solution to reducing this debt burden is to increase individual and/or corporate taxes. And, in 2026, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expires. So, what plans should an individual investor be making today if tax rates change significantly in the coming years?

Our optimal retirement income calculator now models tax uncertainty

Since we don’t know what the U.S. Congress will decide in 2026, nor what a future president may sign into law, future tax uncertainty is important for retirement planning. To this end, we recently upgraded our optimal retirement calculator to include this future uncertainty.

Now, under section “Other tax-related information“, you will see two inputs to model this uncertainty. First, there is new input for a percent increase or decrease of future income and capital gains tax rates after the TCJA expires. The 2nd entry is the year this higher or lower rate will occur. The default input values assume that the TCJA will be extended throughout your retirement horizon.

A simple example of rising tax rates on a retirement income plan

So, what happens if tax rates increase by 20% in 2026? A retiree using the Common Rule strategy can expect their bequest to shrink by about $92,000, from $1.227M to $1.135M. However, the Optimal Rule only expects to shrink the inheritance by about $36,000, from $1.638M to 1.602M.

What can we conclude from this? First, and most obviously, higher tax rates will reduce an heir’s inheritance. But, more importantly, optimal drawdown strategies become even more important when tax rates rise, since there is more of an opportunity for tax efficiencies.

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Mr. Phil DeMuth at Conservative Wealth Management LLC for suggesting upgrading our calculator to include future tax uncertainty. Additionally, we wish to thank Mr. Noah Beecher at Cipolla Financial & Insurance Services for noting a discrepancy in our calculator’s pension income, which has now been corrected. For the many others who have sent us suggestions on other improvements to our online calculator, please stand by. More enhancements will be appearing in the coming months. Thank you for your suggestions and your patience!