ETFMathGuy optimal portfolios are now available to free and premium subscribers. Please log-in to see them now. In this post, we discuss how the bond markets fell with rising interest rates this past month, and its effect on the stock market and our ETF portfolios.
Bond markets fell. What is happening with interest rates?
The recent reaction of the bond markets appears to be due to investors being less convinced that U.S. Government interest rates will remain low for the long-term. Based on recent Wall Street Journal reporting, demand for the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has been “tepid”. With lesser demand come lower prices to stimulate buying. And, when prices go down in a bond, its interest rate goes up. How so? One simple way to think about this relationship is from the bond seller’s perspective. If the demand for bonds goes up, the bond seller can set a lower fixed interest rate and still find a buyer. Conversely, the bond seller must provide higher fixed interest rates, thereby compensating the bond investor more, if demand is low. If all this sounds confusing, please take a look at the nice visual representation below.

Why is demand low for U.S. Government bonds?
The most obvious explanation for the low demand for bonds is the large amount of debt the U.S. Government is expected to sell to fund the ongoing stimulus efforts. One measurable effect of this stimulus is to continue to keep the U.S.’s debt-to-GDP ratio above 100%. Servicing this debt will slowly become more expensive as interest rates rise.
How did ETFMathGuy Premium Portfolios do in February 2021?
Our portfolios gave back some of their gains in January, in part due to the increased chance that interest rates may be on the rise, increasing corporate borrowing costs. The chart below shows the year-to-date returns of stocks, bonds, and ETFMathGuy premium portfolios held at Fidelity and Schwab. Notice how the low demand for bonds has reduced the total return for the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (ticker: AGG).

We hope this post provided you with some helpful perspectives on why the bond markets fell, and how the stock market, ETFs, and the overall economy are all dependent on one another.



















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