Gold and Silver as Safe Haven? Volatility is Back

Investors often turn to gold and silver in times of macroeconomic uncertainty. Market participants often view these precious metals as traditional “safe haven” assets that preserve value when equities falter or inflation worries spike. In early 2026, this narrative took center stage. Both metals surged to multi-year highs amid geopolitical tensions, a soft U.S. dollar, and rising inflation expectations. However, the last week of January 2026 brought a stark reminder that even safe havens can experience intense volatility. In this post, we view this risk through the lens of liquid instruments in exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

📊 Glimpse at GLD & SLV Performance

GLD and SLV are two ETFs that track the spot price performance of gold and silver. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is the largest gold ETF. It is widely used to proxy gold price exposure. Similarly, iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is the premier silver ETF, reflecting broader investor positioning in silver. Over the week ending January 31, both ETFs experienced sharp swings. GLD dipped from recent highs, while SLV posted even larger percentage moves. This dip reflected silver’s historically higher volatility and tendency to amplify market sentiment shifts.

📉 Late-January ETF Safe Haven Volatility

Data from the week of January 12–18 shows how sharply these assets have been moving.

  • GLD (Gold) demonstrated an intra-week range of about ~2.35 %. Its annualized volatility of ~13 % over this week indicated relatively contained swings for gold historically—even as spot prices rose.
  • SLV (Silver) exhibited an intra-week range above ~11.5%. Its annualized volatility above ~75 % over this week underscored silver’s tendency for much larger price oscillations.

In other words, silver’s volatility, especially in extreme market episodes, can be much more than that of gold, reinforcing the idea that SLV carries greater short-term risk for traders and investors alike.

📌 Historical Risk Metrics for a Safe Haven

Longer-term risk figures support this short-term pattern.

Gold and Silver as a safe haven? Volatility is back.
Gold, Silver, U.S. Stocks, and Aggregate Bond ETF performance over the last 12 months, as of January 30, 2026. Source: https://www.etfreplay.com/charts
  • Silver ETF SLV has historically shown higher volatility compared with gold ETFs, meaning silver prices tend to swing harder and more often than gold when markets shift sentiment or macro drivers change.
  • Gold ETF GLD’s lower volatility has often made it a preferred choice for risk-averse investors seeking stability.

🧠 What This Means for Investors

The late-January sell-offs and reversals — where precious metals retreated significantly after touching record highs — illustrate that safe-haven status doesn’t equate to smooth performance in every market environment. Sharp reversals driven by shifts in monetary policy expectations or risk appetite can quickly compress profits and widen losses, particularly for more volatile assets like silver.

In short, gold and silver may still play roles as portfolio diversifiers or long-term hedges — but recent prices in GLD and SLV remind us that volatility is very real, and risk metrics matter when evaluating these in a diversified portfolio.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in tax-efficient investing with ETFs

Using diversification to deal with market volatility

A recent Wall Street Journal article discussed the behavioral aspects caused by market volatility. The article nicely summarizes the long term view of the market. Based on historical analysis, there is a 2% drop in the stock market every 33 trading days, on average. With the Dow at its current levels, that is a 520 point drop every 6 weeks or so.

If this amount of volatility is “keeping you up at night”, perhaps your portfolio isn’t properly diversified? I touched on diversification using bonds in my last post, and will discuss diversification more broadly now.

So, what is diversification?

Simply put, diversification is not allowing for concentrated positions in a portfolio. For example, if you have a portfolio of a single stock, this portfolio is not diversified. But, as more stock is added from different companies in different sectors, investors can often reduce portfolio risk. However, market risk remains, as shown below.

Increasing the number of stocks reduces risk, as measured by the standard deviations of periodic returns.
Increasing the number of stocks reduces risk, as measured by the standard deviations of periodic returns.

Going beyond market risk for wider diversification and reduced volatility

A simple approach to managing portfolio risk is through mutual funds or exchange traded funds. Both investment vehicles hold a basket of many securities, eliminating the need to hold individual stocks to properly diversify. Here at ETFMathGuy, we are advocates of ETFs (exchanged traded funds), because ETFs have better tax efficiency, (usually) lower expense ratios, and often trade commission-free.

Now, most individuals also invest outside the stock market. So, they seek diversification by investing in other asset classes too. For instance, bonds tend to “zig” when stocks “zag”. To see an example of this approach, consider the conservative Fidelity optimal portfolio by ETFMathGuy published for March 2019, and shown below.

Taxable portfolio using Fidelity commission-free ETFs reduces volatility

Assuming an investor buys-and-holds this portfolio from March 4, 2019 through May 21, 2019, the growth of $100 appears below. Notice that the large drop at the end of this time period. This volatility, shown in blue as the S&P 500 ETF (ticker: IVV), is largely unnoticeable in the ETFMathGuy optimal portfolio, shown in green.

Comparing volatility of the conservative ETFMathGuy optimal Fidelity portfolio to the S&P 500 ETF
Comparing volatility of the conservative ETFMathGuy optimal Fidelity portfolio to the S&P 500 ETF

Digging into the statistics reveals compelling information about the volatility. The annualized volatility over this period of the ETFMathGuy portfolio is 4.0% versus 11.0% for the S&P 500 ETF. Clearly, diversification across asset classes (like stocks and bonds) can be a very effective way to manage volatility.


ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.