Tag: economy

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New Features in our Optimal Retirement Income Calculator

Recently, we discussed our free web-based calculator to help you better plan for your retirement. At that time, it offered answers to the many commonly posed questions for those nearing or currently in retirement.

  • How long will my portfolio support my discretionary and non-discretionary expenses?
  • How much will my heir or favorite charitable organization receive?
  • What will my future tax liabilities look like?

Now, our calculator includes many new features to address a broader group of retirees, especially those with a spouse or domestic partner with other sources of retirement assets or retirement income.

The Optimal Retirement Income Calculator by ETFMathGuy.com has many new features
The Optimal Retirement Income Calculator by ETFMathGuy.com has many new features

New Features

The newest version of our retirement calculator offers a better interface for inputs, by arranging them in logical groups. It also includes many new features relevant to many retirement plans.

  • A separate retirement horizon for a surviving spouse (or domestic partner) and their unique after-tax retirement income needs
  • New inputs for the spouse’s tax-deferred accounts, like Traditional IRAs, Rollover IRAs, 401(k)s, 403(b)s and 457 plans
  • New inputs for the spouse’s tax-exempt accounts, like Roth IRAs, Roth 401(k)s and Roth 403(b)s
  • An option to select your state of residence, so that the taxable brokerage account can be properly taxed whether (or not) the surviving spouse resides in a community property state
  • Added a starting age for social security and pensions for the retiree, and if applicable, their spouse, to delay these other sources of retirement income.
  • Input to choose whether (or not) to value the heir’s assets based on using the new 10-year inherited IRA stretch rules due to the SECURE Act.

Optimizing Retirement Income Withdrawal Decisions with a Spouse’s Contribution

Like the previous version, the calculator provides results using the Common Rule and our Optimal Rule. To develop a plan for a hypothetical couple, we used the default values in the calculator, but switched the input labeled “Do you have a spouse or domestic partner?” to “yes”. In this case, you would received the following summary of your plan.

Plan summary example when a spouse or domestic partner is included in the Optimal Retirement Calculator from ETFMathGuy.com
Plan summary example when a spouse or domestic partner is included in the Optimal Retirement Calculator from ETFMathGuy.com

Scrolling down the page, you will see the a forecast of withdrawals to meet this hypothetical couple’s after-tax retirement income needs. In this case, we assumed a 20-year retirement horizon for the retiree. Then, the surviving spouse lives an additional five years after the retiree passes away. Consequently, in years 21-25 of retirement, the surviving spouse is no longer filing their taxes as “married filing jointly“. Instead, their tax brackets are significantly lower in these later years with a filing status of “single“.

Our updated optimal retirement income calculator now includes results for a surviving spouse (or domestic partner)
Our updated optimal retirement income calculator now includes results for a surviving spouse or domestic partner .

The updated retirement calculator also tracks account balances, and now includes the spouse (or domestic partner) accounts as dashed lines.

Account balances now include spouse or domestic partner accounts.
Account balances now include spouse or domestic partner accounts.

We hope you find these new features helpful as you plan for your retirement! This new calculator continues to improve, and we welcome your suggestions.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Market Volatility Continues to Decline

Declining market volatility continued in the month of May. Also, the S&P 500 had a very good month, returning 4.8%. However, the broad-based index is still down 5.0% for the year, including dividends. The chart below updates the returns from last month for returns through May 29, 2020. As these results show, the ETFMathGuy Moderate and Aggressive portfolios continued to outperform the S&P 500. The premium portfolios for April and May 2020 are now available to all subscribers. The latest premium portfolios for June 2020 are available to paid subscribers.

Year-to-date returns through May 2020 for the stock market, bond market and ETFMathGuy Portfolios
Year-to-date returns through May 2020 for the stock market, bond market and ETFMathGuy Portfolios

Markets returning to normal?

The declining market volatility suggests that the fear in the markets continued to subside in May. However, they are still elevated above their long-term historical average. The image below shows the volatility from our daily monitor that tracks the S&P 500 ETF (ticker: IVV). We determine the standard deviation of daily returns over one, two and three month periods, and report an average to find a daily value. As of Friday, May 29th, volatility was 37.8%, as shown below.

Stock market volatility is still high, be is now well below its recent peak over 70%.
Stock market volatility is still high, be is now well below its recent peak over 70%.

Market Volatility Still Higher than Normal

Analyzing over 5,000 trading days since mid-June 2000, we can see how “out of the norm” current volatility really is. The table below shows the distribution of volatility over this nearly 20-year time period. As this table shows, we are still in the 96 percentile of volatility, meaning only 4% of the days since mid-June 2000 exhibited higher volatility then on May 29th, 2020.

Stock market volatility is still very high, by historical standards.

Stock markets returning to “normal” can be very subjective. The table above can provide a more objective perspective to such an assessment. However, if the downward trend continues, it may not take much longer before volatility returns to its long term historical norm.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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The stock market and an economic recovery

What is the relationship between the stock market and an economic recovery? Matt Phillips at the NY Times recently wrote an excellent article on this topic. I’ll be discussing some of his key insights here, as well as how different segments of the market are doing.

A leading indicator for economic recovery?

The stock market can be thought of as a voting machine on the expected direction of the economy. So, given the continued stability of the stock market and recent lower volatility, I agree with his NY Times article’s sentiment on the economic recovery.

“…Investors have already accounted for what’s expected to be a cataclysmic drop in second-quarter activity and are forecasting a relatively rapid economic recovery afterward.”

Matt Phillips, New York Times, May 10, 2020

Here at ETFMathGuy, we use the S&P 500 as our proxy of the stock market. However, it is important to remember that the S&P 500 is a cap-weighted index, so larger companies contribute more to the index returns. The five largest companies in this index are technology companies, which market participants expect to be more resilient to the economic effects of the coronavirus. Consequently, through the end of April, these technology firms were up about 10% for the year, with the rest of the S&P 500 firms down 13%, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.

The largest components in the S&P 500 index are all technology companies. Source: etf.com/IVV
The five largest components in the S&P 500 index are all technology companies. Source: etf.com/IVV

What sectors are struggling?

So, if technology firms are doing well, what sectors are struggling the most? One obvious spot is the real estate sector. To this end, below is the total return this year of ETFs representing the S&P 500 and real estate. The green line shows the S&P 500 (ticker: IVV) and the blue line shows the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (ticker: IYR).

The real estate sector is not recovering like the S&P 500 index. Source: https://www.etfreplay.com/charts.aspx
The real estate sector is not recovering like the S&P 500 index. Source: https://www.etfreplay.com/charts.aspx

These returns indicate the real estate sector may not be recovering as quickly as the rest of the S&P 500. Thus, we believe that a simple explanation is that work places have fundamentally changed. Subsequently, there could be a change to the long-term demand for commercial real estate.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.