Tag: ETF

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The latest news on proposed tax changes

There is good and bad news on the latest proposal for tax changes on investments. In this post, we summarize the latest in a developing set of changes to future taxes on long-term investment gains.

Good news on proposed tax changes

According to the WSJ, the House Ways and Means Committee will not raise taxes on long-term capital gains to over 40%, as proposed by the Biden administration. So, an ETF investor should hopefully not see their long-term capital gains tax nearly double by realizing them.

Instead, the current rate of 23.8% would increase by 5% to 28.8%. This rate typically applies to qualified dividends too, such as those produced by an S&P 500 index fund like IVV. Additionally, lawmakers appear to be preserving the step-up in cost basis for inherited assets. This is good news for ETF investors, as we noted previously.

quote box ontop of stack of paper bills
Photo by Karolina Grabowska on Pexels.com

Bad news

Unfortunately, the proposed tax changes can have a significant impact on the windfall resulting from the sale of a home or business. Home sellers do have an exemption, but these limits can easily be exceeded for those living in high cost of living areas. And, since some home sellers may be recently widowed, these individuals would be even more adversely affected. Recently widowed individuals will see their exemption cut in half as they can no longer file their tax returns as married. For business sellers who may have invested much of their nest egg into building their business, this additional tax could significantly reduce the after-tax value of their sale.

Updated optimal portfolios

For subscribers of our ETF optimal portfolios, we encourage you to log in to see the latest updates. Note that, based on our latest backtesting, monthly portfolios change more quickly now to respond to market dynamics.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Backtesting for 2021 and ETFMathGuy portfolio enhancements

Due to portfolio performance not meeting our recent expectations, we revisited our backtesting results from August 2018 and produced important new insights and portfolio construction enhancements. We discovered that a longer sample period, identified previously, no longer applied. The image below shows that a three-month sample period produced the best returns from January 2020 to August 27, 2021. Each point on this line plot represents annualized backtested performance for 19 monthly portfolios over this testing period.

Backtesting for 2021 to find the optimal sample period (months) for ETFMathGuy Portfolio Construction
Backtesting for 2021 to find the optimal sample period (months) for ETFMathGuy Portfolio Construction

What performance predictions occurred with this shorter sample period?

Using this shorter sample period, we produced the plot below of total return since January of 2020. We chose this time period to include the full pre and post-term effects of the coronavirus on the world economy. In addition, and based on subscriber feedback, we now exclude ETFs that issue K-1 tax forms to investors. We made this decision because these 22 ETFs had a marginal effect on backtested performance that used over 1,000 other ETFs that do not issue K-1s. We also increased our ETF filter threshold of median volume to improve liquidity for future portfolios that will likely have a higher turnover rate. The consequences of these decisions on backtested performance appear below.

Backtested Returns from 2020-2021 of the ETFMathGuy Optimal Portfolios
Backtested Returns from 2020-2021 of the ETFMathGuy Optimal Portfolios

Future ETFMathGuy portfolios

Given the improvement potential identified from this updated backtesting for 2021, all portfolios published in September 2021 and later will follow these updated findings. This update for the September portfolios will likely indicate a significant change from the August portfolios. However, future monthly portfolios will change less significantly. So, we encourage subscribers to log in and see the September ETFMathGuy portfolios that are based on this evidence-based analysis.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Taxes on Cryptocurrencies

In our post last week, we showed how the risk of cryptocurrencies appears much higher than the risk of stocks and bonds. This week, we will discuss some of the taxes on cryptocurrencies, and how they differ from buying and selling an ETF.

various cryptocurrency on table
Photo by Roger Brown on Pexels.com

Taxing gains and losses

When trading an ETF in a taxable account (e.g. not an IRA or Roth IRA account), trades are generally subject to taxes much like that of a stock. So, gains that are realized after holding for less than a year are taxable as ordinary income. However, to reduce taxes owed on these gains, an investor can offset them with realized losses on other ETFs. Termed tax-loss harvesting, such an approach can have significant economic benefits. But, what if the investor wishes to buy these ETFs they just sold because they anticipate it to appreciate again?

Wash Sale Rules

Selling, then rebuying, an ETF within 30 days violates the Wash Sale Rule. Consequently, such a violation means that the loss on the ETF investment can not be claimed for tax reasons, effectively eliminating the opportunity to tax-loss harvest. But, based on experts cited in this recent CNBC article, wash sale rules do not apply to taxes on cryptocurrencies. The article does caution that some caveats do apply. It suggests that selling a cryptocurrency one day and buying it again the next could still enable tax-loss harvesting. Given the recent wild swings in cryptocurrency prices, and recent gains in some ETFs, investors may wish to consider this tax-loss harvesting approach.

Free and Premium Portfolios Now Available

Lastly, this post is a reminder that the latest free and premium optimal portfolios are now available for your review. So, please log in and see how the latest market conditions have affected these ETF portfolios. 

Note:  This post has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Measuring cryptocurrency risk

Cryptocurrency risk is well known to be very high for many reasons. However, both individual and institutional investors continue to evaluate it as part of their investment portfolios. This post discusses recent cryptocurrency trends in a diversified portfolio and how the risks of this alternative investment compare to mainstream investments like stocks and bonds.

Volatility estimates

Volatility is one common way of assessing the risk of any investment. For the stock market, we provide a historical perspective, updated daily, to see how volatility changes over time for the stock market. But, how does this volatility compare to investments in cryptocurrency? The chart below shows a 3-month annualized volatility for the last several years of the stock market, measured with the ETF IVV, the bond market, measured by the ETF AGG, and the crypto market, measured by the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust  (GBTC). As this chart shows, bond volatility is the lowest, averaging between 3-4%. Stock volatility is higher, averaging between 15 – 20%. Cryptocurrency risk is about five times higher than stocks, with average volatility between 90-100%.

3-Month Annualized Volatility of the stock, bond, and cryptocurrency markets. Source: ETFMathGuy.com
3-Month annualized volatility of the stock, bond, and cryptocurrency markets. Source: ETFMathGuy.com

How much to allocate to cryptocurrency?

This recent WSJ article provided some guidance for individual investors interested in investing in cryptocurrency. While the answers to this question really depend on the individual’s risk tolerance, this article suggested between 1-2%. So, even if the value of the crypto investment hits $0, the investor limits their loss to this original investment amount. But, given the high levels of volatility, more frequent rebalancing may be prudent. Thus, if there is a substantial increase in the price of a crypto investment, the targeted 1-2% allocation would most likely require selling some of the crypto gains.

Unfortunately, selling short-term gains can be “expensive”, especially for those individual investors in a higher income tax bracket. In this case, the use of a Roth IRA may be the best approach. Why? An investor can realize Roth IRA gains tax-free if taken after age 59 1/2 from an account open for more than five years.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Recap of the first half of 2021

Greeting ETFMathGuy subscribers! This post is a reminder that the latest free and premium optimal portfolios are now available for your review. So, please log in and see how the latest market conditions have affected these ETF portfolios. To begin, we discuss value versus growth ETFs and recent trends in their returns.

Recent returns on value investing leveling off?

A few months ago, we wrote about how value-driven ETFs returned about 5% more in the first quarter than growth ETFs. Revisiting the returns of the ETFs IVV, VUG, and VTV for the first half of 2021 shows this gap has shrunk to 3% after growing to more than 10%. In fact, as the chart here shows, the value ETF is below its early May high, while the growth ETF appears to have begun a new upward trend.

Total returns of value and growth ETFs.
The total return of value and growth ETFs in the first half of 2021. Source: www.ETFReplay.com

Is the relationship between value and growth ETFs typical?

The relationship between two variables can be directly measured using correlation which varies between 1 and -1. So, a correlation of 1 between two investment returns indicates their returns are identical. Traditionally, the correlation between value and growth investments was around 75%. However, as this Wall Street Journal article highlights, the current correlation between growth and value is now below 25%.

Correlation between value and growth returns.
Source: Wall Street Journal, June 28, 2021, by James Mackintosh

Performance of the ETFMathGuy Premium Portfolios

Based on actual investment performance, the risk and return of the moderate and aggressive portfolios over the last 18 months appear below. Consequently, this period includes all of the calendar year 2020, and the first half of 2021.

ModerateAggressiveS&P 500 (IVV)
volatility (risk, annualized)19.5%22.5%21.2%
total return23.9%32.7%36.4%
Annualized risk and total return of the ETFMathGuy portfolios, 2020-2021 (18 months).

We will continue to update our ETFMathGuy portfolios with current market conditions using our updated backtesting calibration results. So, time will tell if value ETF investing continues to outperform growth ETF investing.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Upgrades to our Optimal Retirement Income Calculator

As promised, our free optimal retirement income calculator continues to improve based on your feedback. Thank you to everyone who has provided suggestions by contacting us! In this post, we highlight some of the most recent enhancements to this free online resource.

A Glide Path?

The term “Glide Path” is used to refer to shifting from one asset to another. Previously, our optimal retirement income calculator kept a retiree and their spouse’s asset allocation fixed. For example, our calculator previously maintained a fixed allocation (e.g. 60% stock and 40% bond) each year by drawing down accounts appropriately. Unfortunately, such an assumption is not entirely realistic. Instead, many retirees may wish to slowly reduce their “riskiness” in stocks and increase their “safety” of bonds during retirement.

A typical retirement glide path reduces portfolio risk each year. Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com
A typical retirement glide path reduces portfolio risk each year. Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com

One percent is a typical glide path, meaning that a retiree who is 60 years old starting with an asset allocation of 60/40 (stocks/bonds) will shift their asset allocation to 59/41 at 61 years old, 58/42 at 62 years old, and so forth.

Our optimal retirement income calculator now includes a glide path to transition from stocks to bonds during retirement.
Our optimal retirement income calculator now includes a glide path to transition from stocks to bonds during retirement.

Other updates to our optimal retirement income calculator

We also updated a number of the default values used to better reflect “typical” retiree demographics, as well as expected macroeconomics and capital market conditions. The list below summarizes these default changes.

  1. Retiree and spouse default ages changed to 65 and 62. This difference of three years is consistent with the average difference in retiree and spousal ages.
  2. The long-term rate of return of stocks and bonds set to 7.2% and 4%, based on the lifetime annualized returns for our stock and bond ETFs IVV and AGG.
  3. We set the retiree’s fraction of cost basis for stocks/bonds assuming a 10-year gain at their long-term rates. So, the cost basis for stocks stayed at 50%. But, the cost basis for bonds increased to 68%, since over 10 years, bond capital gains and reinvestment of dividends would yield a higher cost basis.
  4. Inflation rate set to 2.1%, based on an AR(1) stochastic process model and annual CPI (consumer price index) data from 1992-2020.

We hope you find these updates helpful as you plan for your financial future! Please stay tuned as there are still several suggestions we are still working on that will appear in the coming months.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Backtesting ETF portfolios

Backtesting ETF portfolios is a very important part of validating any investment strategy that uses them. At ETFMathGuy, we backtest our optimal portfolio construction strategy periodically. Doing so ensures that our quantitative methodology stays calibrated to the highest performing portfolios. Here, we discuss the key findings from this recent analysis.

Backtesting methodology

Our backtesting methodology follows the same approach we used in our previous backtesting analysis. The key distinction now is our time period begins in 2014 and runs through April of 2021. Also, we focused on one-month holding periods this time. Why? Based on our previous results, we found holding periods between 1-3 months had little impact on returns.

Backtesting ETF results over a longer-term

Firstly, the chart below shows the result of changing the duration of the sampling period on the out-of-sample returns. Note that there are two local maximums, with the first occurring and the 6-9 months, but a second more substantial maximum occurring at about 39 and 45 months.

Annualized returns from backtesting differing sample sizes. Source: ETFMathGuy.com
Annualized returns from backtesting differing sample sizes. Source: ETFMathGuy.com

However, when a risk-adjusted return is considered, we can improve this calibration. In the next figure, we show the annualized return divided by the annualized volatility. Thus, it’s clear that the 39 month sample period is superior with this measure for the moderate and aggressive portfolios. For the conservative portfolios, there is only a slight degradation in risk-adjusted return over these 7+ years of backtesting.

Annualized returns / volatility from backtesting differing sample sizes. Source: ETFMathGuy.com
Risk-adjusted returns from backtesting differing sample sizes. Source: ETFMathGuy.com

Backtesting ETF results over a shorter term

We also backtested our quantitative strategy over a shorter interval of the last 15 months, from January 2020, through April 2021. Ideally, our backtesting results over the long-term, shown above, should agree with this shorter time frame. And, in fact, they generally do.

Annualized returns and risk-adjusted returns from backtesting differing sample sizes. Source: ETFMathGuy.com
Annualized returns and risk-adjusted returns from backtesting differing sample sizes. Source: ETFMathGuy.com

Once again, with the slight exception of the conservative strategy, the 36-39 month sample size provided the largest annualized returns and risk-adjusted returns.

Key takeaways

  • Backtesting provides an estimate on how our quantitative strategy would have performed based on historical time periods.
  • The best calibration for the sample period occurs around 39 months based on both absolute return and risk-adjusted return.
  • Longer-term and shorter-term backtesting provided similar calibration results.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Step-up in cost basis on inherited ETFs may soon change

The new proposal called the “American Families Plan” could end the step-up in cost basis for inherited assets. But, what does this mean for ETF investors? In this post, we discuss some of the key details of this proposed plan. This post is also a reminder to our premium subscribers that the May portfolios are now available.

How have inherited ETFs been taxed up to now?

ETFs owned by retirees typically reside in one of three different kinds of accounts. The Secure Act changed the rules for assets in retirement accounts, like IRAs. I published an article about the reduced benefit of the stretch provision in IRAs recently. In summary, non-spouse beneficiaries must now draw down their IRA assets within 10 years. Previously, beneficiaries could limit their withdrawals to Required Minimum Distributions.

However, the American Families Plan proposes new rules on ETFs inherited from a retiree’s taxable account. Currently, an heir enjoys a full step-up in cost basis on inherited ETFs residing in a taxable account, meaning the heir could immediately sell the ETF and not owe any capital gains tax. For example, suppose a retiree purchased $100,000 of SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (ticker: SPY) on April 30, 2001, and reinvested all dividends for the next 20 years. On April 30, 2021, the investment would be worth approximately $484,000, not including any taxes due on the dividends generated by holding this ETF.

Growth of a $100,000 investment in the SPDR S*P 500 Index ETF (ticker SPY). Source: www.etfreplay.com
20 years of growth of a $100,000 investment in the SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (ticker SPY). Source: www.etfreplay.com

Selling appreciated ETFs under this new plan

If the retiree sells this ETF investment prior this his or her death, capital gains would be owed on it up to 20% of the $384,000 gain, or $76,800. However, if the retiree passes away, an heir could sell it immediately and not pay any capital gains taxes. The heir received a step-up in cost basis. The new basis is assigned to the day the retiree passed away. However, under the new plan, this step–up is removed, and replaced by a $1,000,000 exemption. So, in the previous example, the heir would not owe any additional taxes. However, as larger sums of ETFs assets are bequeathed, an heir may owe taxes up to the 39.6% rate. And, there is still the estate tax that may apply if the retiree has more than $11.7 million of assets at death for 2021.

Will this plan pass congress?

No one knows yet what will eventually be passed by congress, so it is likely too early to start making any changes to a retiree’s estate. Time will tell how this may or may not impact your ETF assets passed to your heirs.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Value or Growth ETFs?

Investors continue to debate the benefits of value versus growth investing. The recent rotation into value stocks has only heightened this discussion. But, what is the difference between these two investment approaches when using ETFs?

photo of person holding ceramic mug
Photo by Anna Nekrashevich on Pexels.com

How a firm uses its earnings

While there can be many ways to categorize an ETF as a “growth”, one very simple approach is to look at what the firms in the ETF do with their earnings. Businesses like banks, utilities, and well-established firms like Disney or Johnson & Johnson generally pay a dividend. Back in the days of high-priced commissions to buy and sell an ETF, these dividends were very convenient, because they provided cash to investors without requiring them to sell a portion of their shares. Of course, with most brokers providing $0 commission trades, this aspect of dividends is less compelling. Perhaps more importantly though, firms issue dividends when they prefer to return some earnings to the shareholder, rather than reinvesting it into the business.

Growth companies and dividends

Alternatively, most growth companies see that their earnings could be better used if reinvested in the firm. Reinvestment can take the form of a new production facility, research & development, or others. Technology stocks are most often referred to as growth stocks due to their often relentless pursuit of innovation. Notable examples of growth companies are Apple Inc., Microsoft, and Tesla.

What is a better investment?

The debate between value and growth investing appears never-ending. Consider the last 3 years of investment in the Vanguard Large Cap Growth and Value ETFs (tickers: VUG and VTV). For reference, the S&P 500 ETF from iShares (ticker: IVV) also appears, which is a blend of both kinds of stocks.

Three year of total return of large cap growth, value and the S&P 500. Source: www.ETFReplay.com
Three year total return of large cap growth, large cap value and the S&P 500. Source: www.ETFReplay.com

From this chart, the growth ETF outperformed the value ETF over the last three years by greater than a factor of two, while producing little additional volatility. However, so far in 2021, this value ETF performed better than the growth ETF by about 5%, as shown below. Additionally, this value ETF achieved this outperformance with lower volatility.

2021 year to date total return of large cap growth, value and the S&P 500. Source: www.ETFReplay.com
2021 year to date total return of large cap growth, value and the S&P 500. Source: www.ETFReplay.com

Diversify the effect away

Not sure if value or growth is right for you? A simple way to avoid this debate is to diversify into both growth and value simultaneously. By investing in an S&P 500 index ETF, you also get access to a single investment that is extremely liquid and very cost-efficient.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Risk-seeking investors and the first quarter of 2021

There was plenty of risk-seeking in the first quarter of 2021. So, how did the stock and bond market respond?

A Unique Quarter

This recent Wall Street Journal article summarized this first quarter well. The author identified the following contributors to recent market behavior due to risk-seeking investors.

  1. Meme stocks
  2. Interest rates
  3. Tech rotation

Meme stocks and the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)

The most popular “meme” stock was GameStop Corp. for risk-seeking investors. But, what is a meme stock? This source describes it as a stock that exhibits rapid price growth that is popular among millennials. Meme stocks can also be categorized by high volatility, fueled by the so-called Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) and panic selling. Time will tell if this category of stocks becomes more formalized, as many in the workforce return to their offices, thereby limiting their trading time. Of course, the effect of social media on stock trading isn’t likely to go away anytime soon.

A new trend in interest rates?

The other big news in the first quarter was the increase in interest rates. Long-term bond yields increased in February and March, after starting the year at 0.917%.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield in First Quarter of 2021. Source: MarketWatch.com
U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield in First Quarter of 2021. Source: MarketWatch.com

By the end of the first quarter of 2021, the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note yield rose to 1.745%. As we wrote about before, the price of a bond decreases when yields rise. Consequently, the iShares Core Total US Bond ETF fell, to a year-to-date loss of 3.4%.

Total Return of iShares Core Total US Bond ETF, First Quarter of 2021. Source: ETFReplay.com
Total Return of iShares Core Total US Bond ETF, First Quarter of 2021. Source: ETFReplay.com

Tech Rotation

The first quarter was also characterized by about a 5% return difference between the Dow and Nasdaq indices. For instance, Exxon Mobil Corp. is up 35% this year, while Amazon and Apple have lost 5% and 7.9%, respectively. Of course, no one knows if this rotation out of tech and into energy is a new trend or just a reaction to markets anticipating a future with more energy consumption due to increased commuting. But, these recent changes have been incorporated into our portfolio construction process to produce an update to our free and premium portfolios. We encourage you to log in to see how these ETF portfolios changed due to the latest market dynamics.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.