Tag: portfolio

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Taxation and your ETF investments

Taxation of your ETF investments is an important consideration. As we discussed in our previous post ETF Tax Efficiency vs. Mutual Funds, ETFs are quite tax efficient. Here, we summarize taxation of your ETF investments when held in a taxable account.

ETF taxation occurs in two ways. First, taxes occur when an ETF issues a dividend. Also, taxes occur when an investors sells their ETF for a gain (or loss). So, let’s first look at the preferred (lower) level of taxation available for ETFs.

ETF taxation of qualified dividends and long-term capital gains

ETFs issue two types of dividends, called qualified and non-qualified. As shown below, ETF investors prefer taxation of qualified dividends, due to their lower capital gains rates. Many stock-based ETFs issue these types of dividends. For example, the iShares core S&P 500 index ETF (ticker: IVV) currently distributes a qualified dividend yield of 2.05%. Investors who buy an ETF and sell it at least one year later also realize these preferred rates.

Tax rates for qualified dividends and long-term capital gains. source: https://taxfoundation.org/2019-tax-brackets/
Tax rates for qualified dividends and long-term capital gains.
source: https://taxfoundation.org/2019-tax-brackets/

ETF taxation as ordinary income

Unfortunately, ETFs can also be taxed at the higher rate of ordinary income. The tables below shows the current rates and income brackets for unmarried, married, and head of household tax payers.

Tax rates for non-qualified dividends and short-term capital gains. source: https://taxfoundation.org/2019-tax-brackets/
Tax rates for non-qualified dividends and short-term capital gains.
source: https://taxfoundation.org/2019-tax-brackets/

ETF investors face these taxes when either the ETF issues a non-qualified dividend, or is bought and sold in less than one year. Most bond-based ETFs issue non-qualified dividends. For example, the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (ticker: AGG) generates non-qualified dividends, currently with a yield to maturity of 2.52%.

Don’t let the “tail wag the dog”

While taxation is an important aspect of ETF investing, it should not be the sole consideration. Indeed, Federal taxes could be minimized if one only needs the interest payments from municipal bond ETFs, like the iShares National Muni Bond ETF (ticker: MUB). But, a diversified portfolio should have a variety of asset classes. Instead, consider holding your portfolio of ETFs in a retirement account like a traditional or Roth IRA.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Stocks and Bonds in an ETF portfolio over the long-term

Stocks and bonds carry many benefits when held over the long term. In this post, I highlight a few aspects that are important to individual investors.

Two of the largest stock and bond ETFs analyzed each month by ETFMathGuy follow the tickers symbols IVV and AGG. IVV tracks the S&P 500 index, which consists of large U.S. companies. The top 10 holdings of IVV appear below.

Top 10 holdings of the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF. Source: etf.com/ivv
Top 10 holdings of the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF. Source: etf.com/ivv

The ticker symbol AGG tracks the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. As we discussed in our previous post on the “Fundamentals of Fixed Income ETFs“, quality and maturity are two important components. The quality component of this ETF is largely influenced by its 40% of holdings of U.S. government bonds, and over 20% of mortgage backed securities. Top sector holdings appear below.

Top 10 sector holdings of the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF . Source: etf.com/agg
Top 10 sector holdings of the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF . Source: etf.com/agg

The bonds in AGG have an average maturity of about 8 years. Consequently, interest rate changes generally affect its price more than similar bond ETFs with shorter maturities.

Long term returns of stocks and bonds

The fundamental information about stock and bond ETFs is important, but doesn’t really address long-term investment performance. For that, consider the following chart that shows the total return of $100,000 invested in either the stock (green) or bond (blue) ETFs mentioned previously.

Total return of $100,00 invested in IVV (green) and AGG (blue) from January 5, 2004 to July 19, 2019. source: ETFReplay.com
Total return of $100,00 invested in IVV (green) and AGG (blue) from January 5, 2004 to July 19, 2019. source: ETFReplay.com

As this chart shows, much better returns are possible with stocks, provided investors are willing to accept the higher volatility. Annual growth rate of the stock ETF (IVV) is more than double (8.7% versus 4.0%) than the bond ETF (AGG). But, the volatility of the stock ETF is nearly four times (4X) larger than the volatility of the bond ETF.

Asset allocation basics

So, what is the correct allocation between stocks and bonds using ETFs? Generally speaking, investors seeking less risk will seek more bonds and less stock exposure. One simple rule of thumb is the “120-age” formula for stocks. So, a 30-year old investor would be 90% in stocks and 10% in bonds. Similarly, an 80-year old investor would be 40% stocks and 60% bonds. A more conservative approach is the “100-age” formula for stocks. In any case, investment risk typically increases with a higher allocation to stocks, and decreases with a higher allocation to bonds.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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June 2019 Optimal Portfolios are Now Available to ETFMathGuy subscribers

The June 2019 optimal portfolios are now available to subscribers of ETFMathGuy. So, just log in and select your discount broker.

You can now view the June 2019 optimal portfolios for the five discount brokers analyzed by ETFMathGuy. These portfolios cover nearly 1,500 ETFs currently offered commission-free from Ameritrade, ETrade, Fidelity, Schwab and Vanguard.

In all cases, we applied our rigorous portfolio construction process to produce the current portfolios. So, we encourage you to browse through these portfolios to review the following characteristics:

  • Allocation of bond versus stock ETFs in the optimal portfolio
  • Turnover from the previous month or months
  • The effect of risk level on the overall portfolio risk statistics
  • The increase in expected return as risk level increases

We hope you find these portfolios educational!

Where are the ESG funds in the 2019 optimal portfolios?

In our mid-April post, we updated the database used by ETFMathGuy to include the expanded list of commission-free ETFs offered by five discount brokers. We also mentioned one of the most popular themes to hit the ETF landscape, called Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investing. For example, Vanguard offers two of these ESG funds.

These two ETFs carry an expense ratio of 0.12% and 0.15%, respectively, consistent with Vanguard’s low-cost philosophy. So, why aren’t these funds appearing in the current portfolios developed by ETFMathGuy?

The short answer is that our portfolio construction process requires a sufficient return history. Based on our backtesting results, we identified an optimal sample period of several years. Unfortunately, the two Vanguard ETFs noted above have only existed since September 18, 2018, or about the last 8 and a half months. Consequently, this history is simply too short for our optimization model to generate portfolios that satisfy investor return expectations.

So, is ESG investing worthwhile?

This is an excellent question! In fact, based on a recent Wall Street Journal article, other experts in the industry shared our concern about a short return history.

“Many of these ESG ETFs are relatively young and have not had a chance to prove if they can demonstrate strong performance”

Todd Rosenbluth, senior director of ETF and mutual-fund research at CFRA

What does this mean for you? Well, if you are an investor focused on using your beliefs to guide your investment decisions, you may find this short history acceptable. However, here at ETFMathGuy, we prefer to make evidence-based decisions. So, we look forward to analyzing longer return histories that may show how ESG funds could be part of an optimal portfolio.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios. June 2019 optimal portfolios are now available.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Risks and Opportunities in Fixed-Income ETFs

Fixed-income ETFs (also known as bond ETFs) continue to grow at a rapid pace. Bond ETFs now exist across a wide spectrum of characteristics. Looking for shorter or longer maturity? Or, how about higher yield (aka junk bonds) versus investment grade or Treasury bonds? ETFs even cover the bond markets in both emerging and developed economies worldwide.

At this rate, State Street Global Advisers predicts that assets in bond ETFs could reach $1 trillion by the end of 2019.

What is driving demand?

Like stock-based ETFs, low cost is a big driver. Greater tax efficiency, as we discussed in detail in a post earlier this year, over bond mutual funds helps too. But, the biggest demand could be simply choice.

“Investors really have a lot of choices — more than they’ve had in the past five years. “

Noel Archard, State Street Global Advisors

Liquidity concerns?

Our opinion at ETFMathGuy is that liquidity concerns are minimal. In fact, real-time ETF price availability helps the price discovery process, and should improve liquidity.

“Fixed-income ETFs have been tested more than once over the past 10-11 years, without any major issues. “

Rich Powers, Vanguard

The current focus of fixed-income ETFs

The current focus of fixed-income ETFs is now in portfolio construction. Here at ETFMathGuy, we are helping to lead this initiative by building portfolios to take full advantage of what fixed-income ETFs have to offer. For instance, in the May taxable conservative portfolio for Vanguard, we show a portfolio with a a variety of fixed-income ETFs in it. We also seek to include higher volume alternative ETFs, to mitigate any possible liquidity issues and minimize the bid-ask spread trading costs.

May 2019 taxable optimal portfolio for risk conservative investors, by ETFMathGuy.
May 2019 taxable optimal portfolio for risk conservative investors, by ETFMathGuy

In conclusion, fixed-income ETFs are in important core component of an optimally diversified portfolio. We invite you to browse through the current month optimal portfolios to see the importance of bond ETFs.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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May 2019 Optimal Portfolios are Now Available to ETFMathGuy subscribers

The 2019 optimal portfolios for the month of May are now available to subscribers of ETFMathGuy. Just log in and select your discount broker.

You can now view the current optimal portfolios for the five discount brokers analyzed by ETFMathGuy. These portfolios cover nearly 1,500 ETFs currently offered commission-free from Ameritrade, ETrade, Fidelity, Schwab and Vanguard.

Portfolios now include updated ETF lineups from Ameritrade, ETrade and Vanguard

As we mentioned in our last post, Ameritrade, ETrade and Vanguard expanded their commission-free lineup. So, the portfolios for the month of May now consider these new funds. Here is a simple count of the number of commission-free ETFs now available from our five discount brokers. Note that IRA accounts exclude the 46 municipal bond ETFs discussed in our recent article.

Commission-free ETFs for Taxable and IRA accounts, as of April 30, 2019

However, this lineup change does not significantly alter the ETFMathGuy portfolios. Remember that several years of price history are necessary to build optimal portfolios. So, ETFs that haven’t been around very long will not be considered as part of the later stages of the portfolio construction process.

Unsure of which discount broker to pick?

If you haven’t yet settled on a discount broker that offers commission-free ETFs, consider the following. Last month, we showed the updated expense ratios and bid-ask spread for Fidelity and Schwab’s commission-free ETFs. Below is the updated information for our other three brokers, Ameritrade, ETrade and Vanguard.

Expense ratios, as of April 2019, for commission-free ETFs offered by Ameritrade, ETrade and Vanguard.
Expense ratios, as of April 2019, for commission-free ETFs offered by Ameritrade, ETrade and Vanguard.

It is pretty clear that, when it comes to expense ratios, Vanguard is the clear winner. The same can be said for Vanguard’s advantage with generally lower bid-ask spreads.

Bid-ask spreads, as of April 2019, for commission-free ETFs offered by Ameritrade, ETrade and Vanguard.

Bid-ask spreads, as of April 2019, for commission-free ETFs offered by Ameritrade, ETrade and Vanguard.

So, is Vanguard the best broker for commission-free ETF portfolios?

This is an excellent question. In terms of number of commission-free ETFs, Schwab is the leader. But, on the basis of cost, Vanguard is the clear winner. What about diversification? Perhaps the diversification benefit of the Schwab (or some of the other discount brokers) can offset their higher costs? We will explore this topic in a future blog post. Stay tuned!

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Discount brokers adjust and expand their commission-free ETF lineup

A few weeks ago, we discussed the expanded commission-free ETF lineup offered by Fidelity and Schwab.

In this post, we revisit the current commission-free ETF lineup offered by the three other discount brokers analyzed by ETFMathGuy. These three brokers include Ameritrade, ETrade and Vanguard.

Ameritrade’s updated lineup of commission-free ETFs

Ameritrade continues to offer 308 commission-free ETFs. Our list used to develop optimal portfolios at ETFMathGuy at the end of last year did change somewhat. Seven ETFs ceased trading in February and March, and most were from WisdomTree.

Seven ETFs ceased trading in February and March, 2019, and were removed from Ameritrade's commission-free ETF lineup.
Seven ETFs ceased trading in February and March, 2019, and were removed from Ameritrade’s commission-free ETF lineup.

Ameritrade replaced these ETFs with seven commission-free ETFs. These replacements come from First Trust, State Street, iShares and Invesco.

Ameritrade added seven funds to their commission-free ETF lineup.
Ameritrade added seven funds to their commission-free ETF lineup.

ETrade’s updated lineup of commission-free ETFs

ETrade made a modest increase to their commission-free ETF lineup, increasing from 259 to 274. Their lineup change was due to removing a number of funds from Vanguard. In addition, and like Ameritrade, many of these ETFs from JPMorgan, Legg Mason and WisdomTree ceased trading.

Fourteen ETFs removed from ETrade's commission-free ETF lineup.
Fourteen ETFs removed from ETrade’s commission-free ETF lineup.

The additional commission-free ETFs offered by ETrade come from a variety of ETF providers, such as Invesco, WisdomTree, iShares and others. The real question here is will these new funds be around for the long haul.

Etrade's commissoin-free ETF lineup includes 29 additional funds.
Etrade’s commissoin-free ETF lineup includes 29 additional funds.

Vanguard’s updated lineup of commission-free ETFs

Vanguard made the smallest change to their list of commission-free ETFs, adding only two funds. Consequently, Vanguard’s total lineup increased from 57 to 59, and embraces a new trend in Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investing.

Vanguard expands their commission-free ETF lineup.
Vanguard expands their commission-free ETF lineup.

So what does this mean for an individual investor?

So what this means to an individual investor? A larger number of commission-free ETFs should provide a greater opportunity for diversification and possibly higher returns. Evidence for this appears in the expected returns and volatility estimates in the latest portfolios developed by us at ETFMathGuy. However, what if you are an investor who had invested in one of the ETFs that ceased trading? An article claims that the liquidation process is mostly painless for the investor. It also claims that even if you don’t sell the ETF before it ceases trading, “you are still going to get fair value for the fund based on the final liquidation”. The bigger issue is how removal of the ETF affects your asset allocation and underlying strategy. If you are following the current portfolios at ETFMathGuy, we have already updated our databases to accommodate such a change.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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April 2019 Optimal Portfolios are Now Available to ETFMathGuy subscribers

The 2019 optimal portfolios for the month of April are now available to subscribers of ETFMathGuy. Just log in and select your discount broker.

You can now view the current portfolios for the five discount brokers analyzed by ETFMathGuy. These portfolios cover over nearly 1,500 ETFs currently offered commission-free from Ameritrade, ETrade, Fidelity, Schwab and Vanguard.

What’s new? Full ETF names, portfolio & benchmark statistics, and portfolios for taxable and IRA accounts.

So, what’s new this month? First, we’ve added the full name of the ETF, so that subscribers don’t need to look up individual ticker symbols. For instance, the portfolios continue to favor the utility sector. So, for example, the Vanguard portfolio lists both the ticker “VPU” and its full name, “Vanguard Utilities ETF”, in the portfolio tables.

New information available on 2019 optimal portfolios from ETFMathGuy
New information available on 2019 optimal portfolios from ETFMathGuy

Second, we’ve added portfolio annualized statistics for expected return and volatility. Now, it is clear what the risk levels are set to in portfolio construction, regardless of the discount broker. For the month of April, annualized risk levels were

  • Conservative: 5.7%
  • Moderate: 8.3%
  • Aggressive: 11.0%

Third, we’ve added benchmark statistics. These measures are an excellent way to understand how the optimal portfolios match up to the broad stock, bond and cash benchmarks used by ETFMathGuy.

Last, but not least, we’ve run our portfolio construction process to include and exclude municipal bond ETFs. As mentioned in our recent post, brokers like Fidelity often restrict the use of municipal bond ETFs in IRA accounts. The summary table at the top of the current portfolios now indicate either Taxable or IRA (no munis).

We hope you find these 2019 optimal portfolios insightful and educational! If you enjoyed reading this post, we hope you will share it with others in your personal or professional network. Just click one of the icons below. And, for a limited time, subscriptions are free!

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.

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Commission-free Municipal Bond ETFs and a diversified portfolio

Commission-free ETFs cover a number of important asset classes, including municipal bonds. “Muni” ETFs can add an important asset class to a diversified portfolio, as returns often differ from other bond ETFs. “Muni” bond ETFs also carry the important benefit of tax-exempt interest.

“…munis are well-known for delivering tax-exempt interest”

Cinthia Murphy, ETF.com, March 18, 2019

Not surprisingly, discount brokers like Fidelity don’t permit their use in tax-advantaged retirement accounts, like IRAs. Since there are currently 46 municipal bond ETFs, most retirement accounts really don’t have access to the full list of commission-free ETFs advertised by discount brokers. The chart below summarizes the number of commission-free ETFs available. It includes the five discount brokers analyzed regularly by ETFMathGuy to develop optimal portfolios.

This chart shows that no single broker offers all 46 “muni” ETFs commission-free. But, Schwab and Fidelity offer the most at 12, followed by ETrade (11), Ameritrade (10) and Vanguard (1).

So, what does this mean for a diversified portfolio with commission-free ETFs? ETFMathGuy will be expanding portfolio construction to include both IRA accounts (that don’t include municipal bond ETFs) and taxable accounts that do.

Please be sure to check back at the beginning of April to see how municipal bond ETFs affect the diversified portfolios created by ETFMathGuy.


ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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ETFs to Mitigate Volatility and Enhance Diversification

Last week’s Wall Street Journal noted that Charles Schwab Corp. and Fidelity Investments have doubled the number of commission-free ETFs they offer.

This is good news for individual investors! More investment options can help enhance diversification and consequently, mitigate volatility.

Here at ETFMathGuy, we build portfolios to do just that…minimize volatility using our proprietary software. In fact, our approach addresses the exact point made by Ben Johnson’s quote, director of fund research at Morningstar. In the article, he states:

“As people stop obsessing over fees, they’re coming to realize that what matters most is portfolio construction. “

Quote from Ben Johnson, Director of Fund Research at Morningstar

We hope you enjoy reading this WSJ article!

For notifications of the latest commentary of ETF investing, please join us with a free membership.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.


ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.