Tag: technology

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Value or Growth ETFs?

Investors continue to debate the benefits of value versus growth investing. The recent rotation into value stocks has only heightened this discussion. But, what is the difference between these two investment approaches when using ETFs?

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How a firm uses its earnings

While there can be many ways to categorize an ETF as a “growth”, one very simple approach is to look at what the firms in the ETF do with their earnings. Businesses like banks, utilities, and well-established firms like Disney or Johnson & Johnson generally pay a dividend. Back in the days of high-priced commissions to buy and sell an ETF, these dividends were very convenient, because they provided cash to investors without requiring them to sell a portion of their shares. Of course, with most brokers providing $0 commission trades, this aspect of dividends is less compelling. Perhaps more importantly though, firms issue dividends when they prefer to return some earnings to the shareholder, rather than reinvesting it into the business.

Growth companies and dividends

Alternatively, most growth companies see that their earnings could be better used if reinvested in the firm. Reinvestment can take the form of a new production facility, research & development, or others. Technology stocks are most often referred to as growth stocks due to their often relentless pursuit of innovation. Notable examples of growth companies are Apple Inc., Microsoft, and Tesla.

What is a better investment?

The debate between value and growth investing appears never-ending. Consider the last 3 years of investment in the Vanguard Large Cap Growth and Value ETFs (tickers: VUG and VTV). For reference, the S&P 500 ETF from iShares (ticker: IVV) also appears, which is a blend of both kinds of stocks.

Three year of total return of large cap growth, value and the S&P 500. Source: www.ETFReplay.com
Three year total return of large cap growth, large cap value and the S&P 500. Source: www.ETFReplay.com

From this chart, the growth ETF outperformed the value ETF over the last three years by greater than a factor of two, while producing little additional volatility. However, so far in 2021, this value ETF performed better than the growth ETF by about 5%, as shown below. Additionally, this value ETF achieved this outperformance with lower volatility.

2021 year to date total return of large cap growth, value and the S&P 500. Source: www.ETFReplay.com
2021 year to date total return of large cap growth, value and the S&P 500. Source: www.ETFReplay.com

Diversify the effect away

Not sure if value or growth is right for you? A simple way to avoid this debate is to diversify into both growth and value simultaneously. By investing in an S&P 500 index ETF, you also get access to a single investment that is extremely liquid and very cost-efficient.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Risk-seeking investors and the first quarter of 2021

There was plenty of risk-seeking in the first quarter of 2021. So, how did the stock and bond market respond?

A Unique Quarter

This recent Wall Street Journal article summarized this first quarter well. The author identified the following contributors to recent market behavior due to risk-seeking investors.

  1. Meme stocks
  2. Interest rates
  3. Tech rotation

Meme stocks and the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)

The most popular “meme” stock was GameStop Corp. for risk-seeking investors. But, what is a meme stock? This source describes it as a stock that exhibits rapid price growth that is popular among millennials. Meme stocks can also be categorized by high volatility, fueled by the so-called Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) and panic selling. Time will tell if this category of stocks becomes more formalized, as many in the workforce return to their offices, thereby limiting their trading time. Of course, the effect of social media on stock trading isn’t likely to go away anytime soon.

A new trend in interest rates?

The other big news in the first quarter was the increase in interest rates. Long-term bond yields increased in February and March, after starting the year at 0.917%.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield in First Quarter of 2021. Source: MarketWatch.com
U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield in First Quarter of 2021. Source: MarketWatch.com

By the end of the first quarter of 2021, the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note yield rose to 1.745%. As we wrote about before, the price of a bond decreases when yields rise. Consequently, the iShares Core Total US Bond ETF fell, to a year-to-date loss of 3.4%.

Total Return of iShares Core Total US Bond ETF, First Quarter of 2021. Source: ETFReplay.com
Total Return of iShares Core Total US Bond ETF, First Quarter of 2021. Source: ETFReplay.com

Tech Rotation

The first quarter was also characterized by about a 5% return difference between the Dow and Nasdaq indices. For instance, Exxon Mobil Corp. is up 35% this year, while Amazon and Apple have lost 5% and 7.9%, respectively. Of course, no one knows if this rotation out of tech and into energy is a new trend or just a reaction to markets anticipating a future with more energy consumption due to increased commuting. But, these recent changes have been incorporated into our portfolio construction process to produce an update to our free and premium portfolios. We encourage you to log in to see how these ETF portfolios changed due to the latest market dynamics.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Thematic ETFs continue to grow

Thematic ETFs continue to grow in popularity. But, how is this type of ETF different from the broad-based ETFs, like those that track the S&P 500? In this post, we discuss several points to consider when investing in thematic ETFs.

What is an ETF “theme”?

ETF themes can come from nearly anywhere in the investment world. As discussed in this recent WSJ article, themes are often found to hopefully align with “beliefs or interests” that investors may have. In the U.S., assets invested in thematic ETFs have doubled in the past three years. However, there have been quite a few closures along the way too. Closures are typically due to the ETF’s expense ratio failing to produce sufficient revenue to match the expense of running the ETF. This WSJ article suggests that ETFs without $50M in assets after three years are most vulnerable.

We agree. In fact, the initial evaluation of the ETFs we use in our portfolio construction process discards ETFs that haven’t existed for several years or have less than $50M under management. Our approach helps avoid the many issues associated with ETF closures.

Opportunities of Thematic ETFs

The obvious attraction of these ETFs is their opportunity to make more “concentrated” investments in companies within its theme. For example, investors interested in companies involved in automation could buy the ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF (ticker: ROBO). Or, if an investor wishes to make investments in solar companies, they can buy the Invesco Solar ETF (ticker: TAN). The image below shows the top ten holdings of this solar ETF.

Top 10 Holdings of the Invesco Solar ETF. Source: ETF.com
Top 10 Holdings of the Invesco Solar ETF. Source: ETF.com

However, theme-based ETFs also lack diversification inherent in broad-based ETFs like iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (ticker IVV). And, they are typically are less liquid. For instance, the average bid-ask spread of the Invesco Solar ETF was 0.11%. The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF bid-ask spread was much lower, at 0.01%, according to ETF.com.

Risks and Rewards of Thematic ETFs

Having more concentrated holdings than a broad-based index usually means higher risk. The chart below shows how the risk, measured by volatility, for the automation and solar ETFs compare to the S&P 500 ETF over the last three years. Clearly, these thematic ETFs exhibited greater risk. For the solar ETF, this higher risk level was compensated by a higher total return. However, the automation ETF’s higher risk levels didn’t produce returns higher than the S&P 500, lagging it by about 1% a year.

Three-year risk and return of the Invesco Solar ETF, ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF and the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF. source: www.etfreplay.com
Three-year risk and return of the Invesco Solar ETF, ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF and the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF. source: www.etfreplay.com
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Can minimum volatility ETFs consistently perform well?

Last weekend, there was a fascinating article about minimum volatility ETFs. It was written by one of my favorite Wall Street Journal columnists, Jason Zweig. In this article, he shared a lot of wisdom, which I will highlight more here.

What is a minimum volatility ETF?

One of the most common ways to measure risk in an ETF is to track its volatility. So, investing in a minimum volatility ETF may make sense for investors seeking to reduce risk. One of the largest low volatility ETFs is the iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF (ticker: USMV), with over $30B in assets. The chart below shows it performance since its inception in October 2011, which generally lagged the S&P 500 (ticker: IVV). However, its volatility was noticably lower.

Risk and Return of a large minimum volatility ETF compared to the S&P 500 . Source: www.ETFReplay.com
Risk and Return of a large minimum volatility ETF compared to the S&P 500 . Source: www.ETFReplay.com

Why did this ETF produce lower risk and lower return?

This ETF is able to lower risk through the use of optimization, much like the ETFMathGuy portfolios. However, we don’t limit our optimal portfolios to equities like minimum volatility ETFs. We consider bonds, commodities and other alternative investments too. ETFMathGuy also uses backtesting that includes transaction costs to build portfolios to maximize returns.

The fund’s index uses an optimization algorithm to build a “minimum variance” portfolio—one that considers correlation between stocks—rather than simply holding a basket of low-vol stocks…

USMV Factset Analytics Insight (https://www.etf.com/USMV)

So, this ETF consists of stocks which typically emphasize lower volatility sectors like financial, utilities and real estate. These sectors are often termed “value”, rather than “growth” investments, in part due their issuance of dividends. Consequently, optimization to produce a minimum volatility ETF removes some market risk, generating a beta of 0.87. But, as we can see in the economic cycle from 2011 – 2020, the return also lagged the market.

Recent performance of minimum volatility

This year’s pandemic has certainly affected the stock market in significant ways. Investments favored by minimum volatility ETFs (financials, utilities, and real estate) have been significantly impacted by coronavirus lockdowns. However, technology has done very well, as remote work has increased the demand for technology systems and services. Unfortunately, technology is typically more of a “growth” investment. So, minimum volatility ETFs often limit their exposure to growth stocks to reduce volatility. In the ETFMathGuy portfolios, technology has been a noticeable portion this year, and has led to encouraging year-to-date returns and performance statistics.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
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Will this stock market rally continue?

As recently discussed in this Wall Street Journal article, there is a deep suspicion on the future of this current stock market rally. In this article, we discuss what this rally looks like in various market segments. We will close on how our ETFMathGuy portfolios have performed so far this year.

The state of our economy

Most investors would agree that the economy is not doing well. Unemployment is high and our GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is shrinking at record levels. However, the Federal reserve has acted quickly and significantly. Also, congress has provided significant economic stimulus. Consequently, we have a stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 total return, up 3.5% year to date. But, not all segments of the market are behaving the same.

Below is a chart similar to the one we wrote about previously, where real estate was lagging the overall market. In that post, we also highlighted that the top 5 companies in the S&P 500 were focused on technology, helping the performance of the S&P 500.

Stock market total returns, year to date. Source: www.ETFreplay.com
Stock market total returns, year to date. Source: www.ETFreplay.com

As this chart shows, real estate is still down about 10% year to date, as measured by the iShares Dow Jones Real Estate REIT ETF. (ticker: IYR). However, the energy sector, as measured by U.S. Energy Sector SPDR ETF (ticker: XLE) is down nearly 38% for the year. Given few people are travelling much these days, we shouldn’t be surprised to see the energy sector prices behaving this way. Alternatively, the technology sector, as measured by the U.S. technology sector SPDR ETF (ticker: XLK) is doing very well, with a 21% total return year to date. Again, this is not surprising to many investors. The demand for many forms of technology is high in order to support workers in our economy working remotely.

ETFMathGuy Portfolios

We build ETFMathGuy portfolios to respond to market dynamics by analyzing daily price returns, variance and covariance over a historical period chosen from our backtesting. We build these portfolios from segments of the market not typically considered, but also exclude ETFs that are not sufficiently liquid. Our cumulative year to date total returns appear below.

Year to Date Total returns of ETFMathGuy Portfolios Through July 31, 2020.

As this chart shows total returns each month for this year, the ETFMathGuy portfolios are succeeding in reducing risk. These portfolios are also continuing to outperform the stock market. If you would like to see how this performance was possible, remember that we analyze over 2,000 ETFs to find assets that maximize returns for the levels of risk chosen. We encourage free subscribers to review the portfolios published earlier in the year, including April and May. Premium subscribers can now view the latest portfolios, based on market data through July 31, 2020.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.

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The stock market and an economic recovery

What is the relationship between the stock market and an economic recovery? Matt Phillips at the NY Times recently wrote an excellent article on this topic. I’ll be discussing some of his key insights here, as well as how different segments of the market are doing.

A leading indicator for economic recovery?

The stock market can be thought of as a voting machine on the expected direction of the economy. So, given the continued stability of the stock market and recent lower volatility, I agree with his NY Times article’s sentiment on the economic recovery.

“…Investors have already accounted for what’s expected to be a cataclysmic drop in second-quarter activity and are forecasting a relatively rapid economic recovery afterward.”

Matt Phillips, New York Times, May 10, 2020

Here at ETFMathGuy, we use the S&P 500 as our proxy of the stock market. However, it is important to remember that the S&P 500 is a cap-weighted index, so larger companies contribute more to the index returns. The five largest companies in this index are technology companies, which market participants expect to be more resilient to the economic effects of the coronavirus. Consequently, through the end of April, these technology firms were up about 10% for the year, with the rest of the S&P 500 firms down 13%, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.

The largest components in the S&P 500 index are all technology companies. Source: etf.com/IVV
The five largest components in the S&P 500 index are all technology companies. Source: etf.com/IVV

What sectors are struggling?

So, if technology firms are doing well, what sectors are struggling the most? One obvious spot is the real estate sector. To this end, below is the total return this year of ETFs representing the S&P 500 and real estate. The green line shows the S&P 500 (ticker: IVV) and the blue line shows the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (ticker: IYR).

The real estate sector is not recovering like the S&P 500 index. Source: https://www.etfreplay.com/charts.aspx
The real estate sector is not recovering like the S&P 500 index. Source: https://www.etfreplay.com/charts.aspx

These returns indicate the real estate sector may not be recovering as quickly as the rest of the S&P 500. Thus, we believe that a simple explanation is that work places have fundamentally changed. Subsequently, there could be a change to the long-term demand for commercial real estate.

ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.
ETFMathGuy is a subscription-based education service for investors interested in using commission-free ETFs in efficient portfolios.